Global Economics Update World trade recovery to weaken in 2011-12 The latest CPB Trade Monitor shows global trade picked up in August, but that the pace of recovery has already slowed sharply this year. We believe trade growth will ease further in coming months and... 27th October 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Sep.) Japan’s exports were broadly unchanged in the third quarter, marking an end to the string of large positive contributions to GDP growth from net trade. For now at least, consumer spending and... 25th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & CPI (Final, Sep.) August’s euro-zone trade figures suggest that the region is coping with slowing global demand pretty well for now. But with the euro appearing increasingly likely to be a major loser in any global... 15th October 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & PPI (Sep.) The widening in the international trade deficit in August, and in particular the jump in the bilateral deficit with China to a record high, will only fuel growing speculation of a currency war. 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response Sustained surpluses and massive FX intervention China's overall trade surplus may have declined slightly last month, but tensions are unlikely to do the same. Q3's monthly surpluses with the US were the three largest on record. Meanwhile, the value... 13th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How much will the strong euro hurt? The euro’s rise to a nine-month high against the US dollar last week suggests that the euro-zone has lost what may turn out to be the opening skirmishes of a global currency war. If the euro remained... 11th October 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & French Trade (Aug.) The latest German industrial and French trade data suggest that, despite ongoing fears about the region’s periphery, the immediate risk of a “double dip” recession in the euro-zone as a whole is small... 7th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) Q2’s national accounts and balance of payments figures brought mixed signals on the fundamental health of the UK economy. There are still good reasons to be concerned over the sustainability of the... 28th September 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Aug.) Japan's exports are still holding up rather better in volume than in value terms, but there is no doubt that the strength of the yen is hurting. What's more, the export and import data combined... 27th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jul.) July’s fall in euro-zone exports is another sign that GDP growth will weaken in Q3 after Q2’s strong expansion. And with exports set to slow further in the months ahead, a consumer revival would be... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Imports check net trade boost Net trade is yet to make a positive contribution to GDP growth during this recovery – in part due to particularly strong import growth. While this is partly a welcome reflection of the recovery in... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
China Data Response International Trade, Property Market (Aug.) There were further encouraging signs in today’s import data that domestic demand is firming up after a shaky few months. The trade surplus is still gaping wide though. Tensions over the renminbi are... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Jul.) July’s dreadful trade figures cast further doubt over the ability of the external sector to drive the recovery once the boost from government and consumer spending fades. 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade & Spanish Ind. Prod. (Jul.) The latest German industrial and trade data add to evidence that the recoveries in these sectors are beginning to lose momentum. Nonetheless, Germany looks set to remain the euro-zone’s main engine of... 8th September 2010 · 1 min read
