Japan Data Response External Trade (Nov) The pick-up in the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November may look encouraging but exports are heading for a big quarterly fall. What's more, imports are relatively buoyant, meaning net trade... 22nd December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s Ifo survey adds to the evidence that the German economy continues to expand at a rapid rate. For Germany at least, the problems in the periphery are for now being more than offset by the... 17th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea-US trade deal good for both sides The amendments in the Korea-US free trade deal (KORUS) announced earlier this month have caused some protests in Korea, but the risk that the new arrangement is blocked by the National Assembly looks... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would WTO accession mean for Russia? Russia’s accession to the WTO is back in the news and, not for the first time in the past decade, it seems that membership talks might now be concluded at some point within the next twelve months. We... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) While a restart in crude oil pipeline activity helped lift energy exports to the US, today's news was really about the surprise jump in non-oil exports to countries further abroad. Indeed, with the... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The sharp decline in the international trade deficit to a nine-month low of $38.7bn in October, from $44.6bn, suggests that our 2.5% forecast for annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth will need to be... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Strong credit growth stokes expectations of tightening Today’s data showing continued rapid lending and very strong import growth will do nothing to calm market concerns that monetary policy in China is falling behind the curve. A rate hike seems imminent... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK Trade (Oct.) October’s UK trade figures add to other recent evidence suggesting that the external sector is finally playing a role in the economic recovery. That said, given the boost from the lower pound, we... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) Germany’s impressive industrial recovery continues to support growth in its own economy and in the euro-zone as a whole. But the favourable effects on the region’s peripheral economies are likely to... 8th December 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should we worry about India's widening external deficit? The current account shortfall in India has climbed quickly to the equivalent of almost 4% of GDP while the composition of foreign financing has deteriorated. Nevertheless, we judge that this should... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The beginning of the end for global imbalances? One of the biggest risks facing the world economy is a lurch towards protectionism, culminating in a trade war between the US and China that would threaten to spill over to other countries. We expect... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Can stockbuilding keep the recovery going? With the fiscal squeeze set to kick in soon and the outlook for demand in the UK’s main export markets looking weak, one remaining hope is that stockbuilding could support the recovery next year. In... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone crisis threatens UK export prospects Last week’s bailout for Ireland did little to ease concerns about the troubled euro-zone periphery. At least the UK banking sector’s exposure to the so-called “PIIGS” – Portugal, Ireland, Italy... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Nov.) November’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that demand on the high street is rising at a rapid rate, perhaps reflecting early signs of a boost to spending ahead of the VAT rise on 1st January... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Oct) Japan’s exports are weakening due both to the strength of the yen, which has already caused the local currency value of overseas sales to fall outright for most of the year, and more recently to a... 25th November 2010 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) September's US international trade figures may give Chinese officials travelling to Seoul for tomorrow's G20 summit something to cling to. But the key point is that the US bilateral trade deficit with... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
