Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.), Emp. (Q3) & HICP Inflation (Nov.) December’s rise in the euro-zone composite PMI did nothing to alter our view that the region is heading into a fairly deep recession, regardless of how the debt crisis develops. 15th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: Fiesta or siesta? The looming downturn in the US next year means that Mexican growth will slow in the run-up to July’s presidential elections. The task of raising economic performance therefore looks set to dominate... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Nov.) China’s latest trade data provide some room for optimism despite the downbeat headline figures. Restocking may explain most of the pick-up in commodity imports, but non-commodity imports increased too... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising Chinese commodity imports are not set to last The volume of China’s commodity imports rose markedly in November, bolstered by weaker prices spurring restocking, probably instead of any upturn in final demand. Indeed, recent steps by the Chinese... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The decline in the trade deficit in October is unlikely to be sustained, not least as US exports can’t continue to grow at current rates when global demand is weakening. 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's international trade data suggest that fourth-quarter exports might be fizzling out faster than anticipated, despite the modest improvements in US economic indicators. The good news is that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) & Producer Prices (Nov.) Given that the £75bn of asset purchases announced in October has not been completed yet, today’s decision by the MPC to leave policy unchanged was unsurprising. However, the Committee has sent some... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Entering another deep recession Hopes that euro-zone policymakers will hatch a new “grand plan” to save the euro-zone may have grown, but evidence is mounting that the region is on the cusp of another deep recession. In November... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Quick fixes are storing up a large adjustment in Venezuela Balance of payments strains in Venezuela are showing no signs of easing. While President Chavez’s short-term fixes may ultimately enable him to squeeze through October’s presidential election, the... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports will likely be a drag on GDP The sharp fall in exports in October was in part the result of the floods in Thailand. However, exports have been sluggish for over a year and are likely to remain weak due to slowing global growth... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How badly will China’s exporters be hit? Rapid wage growth, renminbi appreciation and inflation have not put much of a dent in China’s export competitiveness. We expect export growth to halve next year, but for Chinese exporters nonetheless... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Risks from euro-zone intensify With the euro-zone crisis entering a far more dangerous phase last week, the threats posed to the UK from overseas are looming ever larger. September’s trade data, showing a sharp drop in export... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's international trade data confirm that net exports were a big positive for third-quarter economic growth, which we now estimate at 2.5% annualised. Although there are good reasons to not... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in September suggests that annualised third-quarter GDP growth may be revised up from 2.5% to perhaps 2.8%. But a slowdown in overseas activity means the external... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities (Oct.) The recovery in China’s commodity imports continued to gather pace in October. We remain of the view that this is mainly due to importers restocking, encouraged by lower prices, rather than any... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Oct.) Demand for China’s exports is much weaker than today’s headline growth figures suggest. We expect a sharp slowdown in export growth in November. But imports are growing strongly, implying that... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
