Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish boom hits the buffers December’s trade data provide the clearest evidence yet that the boom in Turkish domestic demand seen over the past couple of years has come to an abrupt halt. 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update The end of Japan’s trade surpluses Japan today announced that it ran a full year merchandise trade deficit in 2011. Although one year’s deficit is relatively unimportant, we expect it will be repeated over the coming years. 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will China’s rebalancing last? China’s trade surplus has halved in the last three years thanks to global weakness and the strength of Chinese investment demand. We expect a further decline in 2012, but then a rebound as China’s... 19th January 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Farewell to the euro The euro-zone is slipping into a recession which we expect to be deep and prolonged and to result in the break-up of the single currency area. This will be a major drag on other European economies... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina on a road to nowhere with protectionist policies Although a flurry of protectionist policies may provide some temporary relief from strains in Argentina’s balance of payments, these measures will ultimately prove self-defeating. The problem is that... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's modest rebound in exports reflected more strongly the recovery in Canadian auto production and better US industrial activity. While exports rebounded, imports fell, with the trade deficit... 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit in November to a 10-month high is perhaps the first real sign that the crisis in Europe and the more general global slowdown is starting to take its toll on the US. 13th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Divergences widen Some of the euro-zone’s survey indicators have ticked up in the past month. However, they almost unanimously warn of a renewed recession in the region, with the composite PMI, for example, pointing to... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) November’s trade figures bucked the trend so far this year of a general improvement in the economic data. 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Dec.) Today’s trade data show an unexpectedly large drop in import growth. This may simply be a correction after a couple of months of relative strength, but it adds to the picture of slowing growth in... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese copper imports hit record high in December China’s overall imports of commodities weakened slightly in December but the fourth quarter of last year as a whole was still strong. Indeed, imports of copper hit a record high last month. However... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Nov.) November’s fall in German industrial production confirmed that the recovery in what had been the strongest sector of the euro-zone’s strongest economy has gone into reverse. 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Large external surpluses are now history Japan's current account surplus is on a declining trend, with the merchandise trade balance already in annual deficit. These developments will add to concerns over Japan's ability to finance its huge... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Have we underestimated Germany? The recent rise in some of the German business surveys has prompted optimistic media reports about Germany saving the euro-zone, acting as Santa, being a twinkling Christmas star in the euro-zone... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling exports point to GDP contraction in Q4 The weakening global economy and the strong yen are weighing heavily on Japanese exports and will probably mean GDP contracts in Q4. The downgrade by a domestic credit rating agency highlights the... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank cuts rates and more likely to come The Swedish Riksbank’s decision to reduce interest rates is a timely reminder that even the strongest performing European economies are not immune from the effects of the euro-zone debt crisis. We... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
