China Economics Update Huge trade deficit, but questions too over domestic demand Exports to the US were a bright spot, but the general picture from China’s latest trade data is that global demand is still subdued. What’s more, imports have grown only slightly faster than exports... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) January's 2.3% m/m decline in exports, mostly due to lower energy and metal prices, trimmed Canada's trade surplus to C$2.1bn from C$2.9bn. More importantly, export volumes, after increasing strongly... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global trade slowed last year, prospects poor for 2012 World trade growth slowed in 2011 as economic activity faltered. There was a slight pick-up in the last quarter, which looks set to continue early this year, but we think trade is likely to remain... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Chinese New Year hits exports but trade deficit to continue Japan recorded its largest ever single-month trade deficit in January, as Chinese New Year holidays elsewhere in Asia caused exports to slump. Although the deficit should fall in February as the... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Euro-zone recession to hit UK exports soon The recent rise in oil prices has sparked fears that CPI inflation will not fall as fast as hoped. However, the focus on oil prices ignores the fact that other commodity prices have risen by less, if... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Current account surplus falling but trade frictions to remain Data released on the eve of Vice President Xi Jinping's visit to the US show that China's current account surplus has continued to tumble. But plenty of potential sources of trade friction remain. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Money and credit still very weak While some of the euro-zone activity indicators have nudged up this month, money and credit growth have weakened further. The annual growth rate of the broad money supply fell to an 11-month low of 1... 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A Turkish soft landing still looks like a tall order Signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is narrowing, coupled with a marked improvement in global financing conditions, have raised hopes that it may be able to put its balance of payments on a... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) December's 5.1% m/m increase in export volumes reflects the recovery in Canadian auto production and, more generally, improvement in US economic activity. This surprising strength means that net... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high in December shouldn’t lead to a revision of fourth-quarter GDP growth, but it does highlight the deteriorating outlook for exports. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports show renewed weakness China’s imports of commodities in January were surely distorted downwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, there are plenty of signs of underlying weakness... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending & Foreign Trade (Jan.) We draw two very tentative conclusions from today’s lending and trade data: domestic demand is still slowing and the pace of policy easing is very slow. 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Dec.) On the face of it, December’s industrial production and trade figures added to the recent run of stronger data on the UK economy. But a closer look at the numbers suggests that the improvement is... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How much will weak export demand weigh on Asia? Exports from Asia have weakened significantly in recent months. Not only are they contracting in y/y terms in many countries, but they have slowed much more sharply compared with other emerging... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus How would the US cope with a euro break-up? The US is not that exposed to the crisis in Europe. Despite the prospect of a very deep euro-zone recession arising from some form of euro break-up, we estimate that US GDP growth will be just 0.5... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish boom hits the buffers December’s trade data provide the clearest evidence yet that the boom in Turkish domestic demand seen over the past couple of years has come to an abrupt halt. 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
