Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rebalancing: so far, so good but much further to go February’s current account data show that the rebalancing of the Turkish economy is progressing more smoothly than we had feared. At its current rate of progress, it will still take another 18 months... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports show signs of weakening Many analysts have focused on the still-high levels of China’s commodity imports in March and the rapid year-on-year growth rate. However, the seasonally adjusted data show imports ended the quarter... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade & CPI (Mar.) March’s trade figures from China paint a picture of slow but steady growth in global demand alongside further weakening at home. 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China's move up the value chain a threat to Asian economies? As China develops, its manufacturing firms are moving into higher-value sectors. While this is a boon for low-wage Asian economies that represent a good alternative for low-end producers... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Will the external sector rescue the recovery? There are a number of reasons to remain optimistic about the outlook for the UK’s external sector. Admittedly, these are likely to be outweighed in the near-term by the knock on effects of the euro... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The downward revision to GDP in Q4 is not too worrying given that the economic news has improved since then. However, we doubt that the recent pick-up in the recovery will last. 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to worry about low-end exports losing market share China’s share of the world’s low-end exports has started to fall. This reflects a shift by Chinese producers into sectors where margins are higher rather than a failure to compete. China’s export... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Who in Asia will benefit from rising labour costs in China? After years of strong growth, China’s textile and apparel exports are now losing market share abroad. Indeed, high and rising labour costs in China mean the migration of low-end manufacturing out of... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Lessons from the Icelandic crisis Three years after entering a depression, Iceland has staged an impressive turnaround, which, on the face of it, bodes well for the peripheral euro-zone economies that have suffered from similar... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Net exports on course to boost Q1 GDP Japan’s export figures saw a marked improvement in February amid signs of recovery in the global economy. As things stand, net exports could boost Q1 GDP by up to 0.4%, helping the economy return to... 22nd March 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Current account deficit no concern The widening in the current account deficit to more than 3% of GDP at the end of last year is no big concern. The US has been running deficits of more than 3% of GDP for most of the past dozen years... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update TARGET2 imbalances highlight euro-zone problems The growing imbalances in the euro-zone’s TARGET2 payments system are another indication of the huge underlying problems still facing the currency union. 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Was Japan’s 2011 trade deficit a one-off? In 2011, Japan recorded its first full-year trade deficit since 1980. The three main factors responsible were the Great East Japan Earthquake, the slowdown in global demand and the increase in... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) Although the UK trade deficit widened in January, the big picture is that the external sector is still holding up quite well given the euro-zone debt crisis. But with the euro-zone economy sliding... 13th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mercosur protectionism may have a silver lining for Uruguay Uruguay is undoubtedly one of the major losers from a lurch towards protectionism within the Mercosur block. To the extent that there is a silver lining, however, it is that in the near-term these... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's strong commodity imports not set to last China’s imports of commodities in February were strong, especially in volume terms, but this may have been distorted upwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays and by... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
