Latin America Economics Update Venezuela heading for recession in 2013 as oil prices tumble The recent sharp drop in oil prices spells danger for Venezuela. The government may be able to muster sufficient funds to prop up the economy this year. But if oil prices continue to fall and remain... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weaker Chinese demand starting to weigh on exports There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q1) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The economy is still estimated to have contracted at the start of the year and it is probably still in recession now. We continue to expect GDP to shrink by 0.5% this year and expand only modestly... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would leaving the EU damage the UK economy? A referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU seems to be becoming a more realistic prospect. We think that concerns about the economic disruption if the UK were to leave are overdone. In fact, the... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in India? India’s economic troubles are mostly self-inflicted and result from policy paralysis and opposition to reforms. That is unlikely to change until the 2014 general elections at the earliest 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Trade deficit set to increase further Japan’s merchandise trade deficit rose by more than markets expected in May and we suspect that it will increase further still. Energy imports should continue to grow as the country remains reliant on... 20th June 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s exports take a turn for the worse A recent drop in regional export growth can be attributed to a number of factors, of which slowing Chinese commodity demand may be the most prominent. We expect export revenues to come under further... 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s trade figures are likely to dampen any positive mood following last night’s policy announcements, with an unexpectedly large widening in the deficit compared to March. 15th June 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Banks respond to stimulus call as economy stabilises The May data brought evidence that conditions in China’s economy stopped deteriorating last month and may have moderately improved. With its banks now pumping out loans to willing state-owned... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response LFS(May 12) & Trade (Apr 12) May's more modest 7,700 gain in employment is forgivable given the unusually strong growth in the previous two months. That said, the details were somewhat discouraging. While part-time employment... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Apr.)12 The narrowing in the trade deficit in April is encouraging, especially given that the latest fall in the oil price will reduce the cost of imported oil. More worrying, however, are the growing signs... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recovery looks to be on firmer ground The US recovery looks to be on firmer ground, despite the mounting crisis in the euro-zone. We anticipate GDP growth of 2.0% this year and 2.5% in 2013. 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) March’s trade figures showed some improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to have dragged on GDP growth in the first quarter overall. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would a Grexit mean for the UK? The UK has few direct exposures to Greece. However, if Greece defaults on its debt, and perhaps leaves the euro-zone, the UK would still stand to suffer indirectly from the fallout. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
