Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: financing risks cloud the outlook With the temporary boost to consumer spending from the Euro 2012 Football Championship now over, Ukraine has to get back to reality. Significant external financing needs continue to cast a long shadow... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jun.) Three points leap out from China’s June trade data. Exports to the US have taken a sudden turn for the worse. Commodity imports have slumped. And the trade surplus has returned to the level it was at... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of industrial commodities drop sharply China’s commodity imports fell in June, with industrial commodities the worst affected due to the slowdown in economic activity. While end-user demand may recover a little in the second half, this may... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (May) May’s industrial and trade figures were not quite as strong as they first appeared. Abstracting from the one-off factors affecting the official figures, it still seems as if an underlying slowdown is... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly A quick look at housing and land prices in Japan Land prices continue to drop in Japan despite having already been falling for over twenty years. During that period, house prices have risen on occasion, most recently in 2010. But in each case the... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly No need to fear another recession Although it is very clear that the US economy has lost a lot of momentum, there are no real indications that it will soon come to a complete standstill or even go into reverse. The latest ISM surveys... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Evidence pointing to a poor Q2 Any chances of the economy escaping a third quarterly contraction have receded in light of the latest surveys and official data. Admittedly, June’s CIPS surveys point to output being flat over the... 9th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a threat is protectionism? The increase in protectionist policies since 2008 has so far had only a modest impact on world trade. Looking forward, however, pressures to adopt more damaging trade barriers may increase... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Europe a greater drag than China The slowdown in Europe has been a greater drag on the US economy than the softening in China. With the euro-zone on the cusp of a deep recession, this trend will only become more pronounced. The... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia keeps rates on hold, but cuts likely soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged at 3% today. This came as no surprise. Resilient domestic demand is for now compensating for an export slowdown. Nevertheless, we still expect... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices threaten investment prospects The faltering global economy has driven commodity prices lower, with Canadian oil prices down sharply from levels earlier this year. Although oil prices have risen somewhat over the past week, we... 5th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weaker inflation to provide little relief Euro-zone activity indicators continue to point to a broad-based worsening in economic conditions. Admittedly, the prospect of further falls in CPI inflation (see Chart) following the recent plunge in... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is South Africa to the euro-crisis? Compared to 2008-09, South Africa is now less vulnerable to financial contagion as a result of a fresh shock to the global economy, most notably from a break-up of the euro-zone. But at the same time... 3rd July 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack End-June rally on shaky ground June’s price volatility offered something for everyone, with several key commodities seeing unusually large moves either up or down, and, in the case of oil, both over the course of the month. This... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) The improvement in the CIPS report on manufacturing in June mainly reflected a bounce-back following May’s unexpectedly sharp fall, rather than any fundamental improvement. The big picture is that the... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strains begin to emerge in Ecuador’s growth model Ecuador’s headline GDP numbers give a somewhat misleading impression of the true health of the economy. A failure to accumulate savings during a run-up in oil prices means that the dollarised economy... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
