Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia & WTO: don’t expect a miracle After almost 20 years of negotiations, Russia’s membership in the WTO at last seems imminent. But as the effects of this will be spread over several years, we do not expect a significant impact on the... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery on hold as economy continues to slow The Japanese economy continued to slow throughout the second quarter and businesses expect only an anaemic recovery in Q3. The economy remains reliant on government support, with reconstruction... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Labour market health belies talk of hard landing China’s economy is growing at one of the slowest rates in years but the labour market is showing few signs of strain. Migrant wages were up 13% y/y last quarter. There are still more jobs being... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the weaker euro rescue Ireland? Ireland’s extraordinarily open economy and strong trade links outside the euro-zone mean that it stands to gain more than other peripheral economies from the depreciation of the euro. But the currency... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Euro-zone drags down global recovery The euro-zone crisis is taking its toll on the rest of the world. Activity slowed in all major economies in the second quarter, including the US, China and Japan. We expect growth to pick up in the US... 18th July 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How would a euro-zone break-up affect Japan? If the euro-zone suffers from some form of break-up, as we expect, Japan could feel the effects through three channels: its trade links with the region, the exposure of its banking system and the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects worsen as crisis broadens The outlook for the European economy has deteriorated as the euro-zone debt crisis has broadened to envelop bigger countries like Spain. Despite the growing talk of the need for growth across the... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weaker currency won’t bail out the euro-zone The drop in the euro exchange rate to its most competitive trade-weighted level in over nine years might appear to improve the euro-zone’s growth prospects and reduce the need for the uncompetitive... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How is China’s slowdown affecting emerging Asia? Figures released on Friday showed that China’s economy grew by just 7.6% y/y in the second quarter, the weakest pace since the first quarter of 2009. The lead article this week examines the effect of... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising pound dents UK export hopes further The further rise in the pound against the euro appears to reflect safe-haven demand for UK assets and the weakening outlook for the euro-zone economy. These factors could yet push sterling higher. 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile, Peru still on course for rate cuts later in the year While there was little doubt that Chile and Peru would leave interest rates unchanged last night, we continue to believe that both countries will lower rates before year-end. On balance, we feel that... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea cuts rates, further cuts likely soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) cut its policy rate to 3% today. It was a surprise that the move came at this meeting, but we have long held the view that rates would need to be cut this year to support the... 12th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) May's 0.6% m/m decline in export volumes together with downward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports declined, a significantly weaker result than our earlier assumption... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The modest narrowing in the trade deficit to $48.7bn in May, from $50.6bn, was mainly due to a price-related drop in the cost of imported oil, so there is no reason to believe that second-quarter real... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: economy could make or break the new president’s tenure The election of Dr. Mohamed Mursi as Egypt’s first democratically-elected president last month represented a significant step in the country’s transition. But as we expected, tensions between the new... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
