Europe Economics Weekly Core’s export resilience won’t last The most surprising element of last week’s Q2 GDP figures was the robustness of exports from France and Germany. Previously strong demand from Asia and the US appears to have been the key, while the... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Don’t count on extra budget to revive the recovery The government has raised the prospect of introducing a supplementary budget before the end of the year. With the recovery unwinding and an election just around the corner, it is not hard to see why... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next big move for the ruble will be down The ruble has been on a rollercoaster ride of late, falling by 10% against its dollar/euro basket in May, before clawing back around 5% of its losses over the past few weeks. If nothing else, this... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan-China trade agreements are not a big deal Efforts by policymakers in Taiwan and China to strengthen their economic ties have had a negligible impact on Taiwan’s merchandise exports to the mainland, although Taiwan has benefitted in some other... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The tide could be turning in Egypt’s favour Reports that Christine Lagarde will visit Egypt next week and that the country may seek more funds from the IMF than had been initially thought are positive developments. This follows the news that... 16th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What do higher commodity prices mean for the Arab world? The rapid rise in global commodity prices over the past two months has raised fresh fears over food inflation in most Arab countries. But we think that the bigger concern could be the balance of... 15th August 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain lacklustre Hopes of a swift rebound in Chinese commodity imports were dashed by today’s trade data which have sent commodity prices lower. We expect this to be a recurring theme as any rebound in China’s economy... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Data Response Foreign Trade (Jul.) Today’s trade and lending figures brought more disappointment. Exports to the US suffered their worst drop since late-2008, while lending fell well short of expectations. 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun. 12) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in June suggests that the easing in global demand and the strengthening in the dollar have yet to take a major toll on the US economy. But we doubt this can... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 0.3% m/m gain in export volumes together with upward revisions to previous months indicate that second-quarter exports increased, a somewhat stronger outcome than the slight decline we had... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jun.) The latest UK trade data were pretty dreadful and we doubt that the extra bank holiday in June can take all of the blame. 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital outflows still under control Fears about capital leaving China are overdone. Recent pressure on the People’s Bank to sell foreign exchange appears to be the result of greater willingness among Chinese firms to hold on to their... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices would expose the region’s laggards The whole of Latin America would be worse off as a result of lower commodity prices, but sharp falls would exacerbate clear divisions in the growth outlook within the region. Chile, Colombia and Peru... 7th August 2012 · 1 min read
No respite in sight The short-term outlook for economic growth across the euro-zone is poor. All member states are likely to contract in 2013, if not 2012. The recession in the euro-zone will also act as a major drag on... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update IMF approves funding for Morocco and Jordan The decision by the IMF to approve funding for Morocco and Jordan will reduce the risks of a balance of payments crisis in the immediate term. But both economies remain fragile. While Morocco is... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Full nationalisation could be required to boost lending The Bank of England’s new Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) got underway last week. If the FLS doesn’t work, more radical action to boost bank lending will be needed. 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
