UK Economics Weekly Should we be worried about the current account deficit? While last week brought some tentatively positive signs regarding bank lending, the news that the UK ran a record current account deficit in Q2, thanks to an investment income deficit, was less... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's external deficit remains a concern India‘s current account deficit fell in the second quarter of the year, but only slightly. The deficit remains high and India is still dependent on fragile portfolio investment. In these circumstances... 28th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The slight upward revision to GDP in Q2 did not alter the big picture that output is still over 4% below its pre-recession peak. We continue to expect GDP to contract by 0.5% this year and expect only... 27th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What are the lessons of historical devaluations for Greece? The experience of economies which have undergone major currency depreciations in the past suggests that a return to the drachma would kick start a Greek economic recovery. Provided that Greece adopted... 25th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan growth to pick up but vulnerabilities persist Q2 GDP data for Kenya, due to be released this week, are likely to show a pick-up in growth from Q1, and we expect further acceleration in the second half of the year. However, the country remains... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Sluggish world trade drags down global recovery Disappointing trade figures have prompted us to cut our forecast for the growth of world trade volumes to just 2% this year. This is much lower than last year’s growth, and is slightly lower than our... 21st September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing correction only just beginning Canada's already lacklustre rate of economic growth is only going to slow further as the housing correction intensifies. Home sales are now falling sharply and it is only a matter of time before... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Shrinking exports will act as large drag on Q3 GDP Japan’s goods exports fell further in August as the slowdown in the global economy continued to weigh on trade. Unless exports have rebounded in September, and today’s flash PMIs from China and the... 20th September 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Widening current account deficit adds to concerns in S. Africa The recent sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit adds to mounting concerns over the direction of the economy and is another reason to expect the rand to weaken over the next six... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stalling exports adds to economy's woes The surge in Canada's monthly trade deficit to a record high of C$2.34bn in July illustrated that the deteriorating global economic backdrop is beginning to have a very marked impact. The widening of... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the worst over for exporters? On the face of it, the substantial improvement in the trade figures in July and the recent easing of financial market turmoil in some of the UK’s most important export markets suggests that the... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) July’s trade figures are nowhere near as good as they look at first sight, as they mask a significant deterioration in export growth to the euro-zone. What’s more, the full impact on the US economy... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul. 12) July's 1.6% m/m drop in export volumes was weaker than we had assumed, which suggests that net exports might remain a drag on GDP growth this quarter. This increases the chance that economic growth... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jul.) July’s trade data showed a surprisingly large improvement following June’s awful figures. But stripping out a reversal of some one-off adverse factors in June, and in light of recent survey evidence... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update WTO tariff reductions will have little impact on Russian inflation The recent revision of Russia’s tariff system as part of its WTO accession is unlikely to have a marked impact on inflation, which is still on course to breach the Central Bank’s end-year target of 5... 11th September 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Export boom keeps Turkey out of recession Q2 GDP data showed that while domestic demand is still contracting, a boom in exports has kept the Turkish economy out of recession. Admittedly, it looks like the economy has weakened in Q3, while... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
