China Economics Update Signs economic recovery is faltering Today’s disappointing trade data have added to our doubts about the sustainability of China’s rebound. The weekend’s figures on investment and industrial production were more encouraging but they... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey struggling but current account limits room for easing The latest data from Turkey paint a pretty gloomy picture: Q3 GDP was weaker than expected and October’s industrial production figures suggest that the economy has made a poor start to Q4. The central... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa's current account deficit still a concern South Africa’s current account deficit was not as wide as expected in Q3, but the fact that it is being funded in large part by portfolio inflows means that external financing risks persist. The... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Central America best placed to benefit from China shift After a decade of underperformance, we believe that growth in Central America will start to outpace that of South America over the coming years. Part of the reason for this is the changing... 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) Following last week’s generally disappointing activity surveys, October’s trade data provided another indication that the economy has got off to a weak start to Q4. 6th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The return of the yen carry trade? Expectations that the yen is about to fall sharply could increase the attractiveness of “carry trades” and hence become self-fulfilling. However, with global interest rates likely to remain low and... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would exiting countries fare outside the euro-zone? Contrary to some suggestions, there are good reasons to think that, beyond the initial economic andfinancial disruption caused by an exit from the euro-zone, most of the current peripheral... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing stabilises November’s PMIs were a positive surprise for Central Europe, where it looks like the manufacturingsector stabilised. Elsewhere, signs that Turkey’s exports may be flat-lining are worrying as they mean... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core should respond to a euro break-up Sharp appreciations in the euro-zone’s core countries would threaten to damage their exports and GDP in the event of a euro-zone break-up. But there are various policies that could be implemented to... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Exports to remain a drag on growth A quick look at what’s behind the recent slide in Japan’s exports confirms that the main drag is the renewed downturn in the global economy. Exports to China have not deteriorated more than those to... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China's exporters still shrugging off fast-rising wages For years, the abiding view of China has been of a workshop powered by waves of young migrants able to outcompete workers elsewhere on the basis of low wages. This image is increasingly wide of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How would a euro break-up affect the core? A euro-zone break-up would see the re-instated domestic currencies of the region’s core economies appreciate sharply. Without appropriate policy action, the resulting damage to exports would more than... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Current account deficits still a source of EM vulnerability Large current account deficits and a reliance on short-term capital flows make a number of emerging economies vulnerable to a deterioration in the external funding environment. Turkey is most exposed... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little underlying improvement in Turkey's external deficit The upgrade to Turkey’s credit rating last week came in spite of the fact that there has been little underlying improvement in its sizeable current account deficit. This leaves the economy exposed to... 14th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few options left to plug holes in Venezuela's balance of payments A combination of quick-fix remedies may enable the Venezuelan economy to withstand the loss of exports revenues if oil prices fall over the next couple of years. But with the authorities running out... 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How the core economies managed before the euro The common perception that the euro-zone’s core economies are inherently dependent on exports and would struggle to grow outside the single currency is misplaced. They all achieved pretty strong... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
