China Economics Update Stalling credit growth points to limited economic rebound There were signs of strengthening developed world demand in China’s latest export data. Stronger growth in China is being reflected in rising imports. But with credit growth levelling off, a strong... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) Following Friday’s disappointing results from the CIPS/Markit report on services, November’s trade data provided another reminder that the economy is likely to have contracted in the last quarter of... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Further weakness ahead for Kenyan shilling The Kenyan shilling slipped to a seven-month low against the US$ this morning and we think that growing domestic political risk in the run-up to elections in March, coupled with a large current... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An alternative scenario for Turkey Turkey’s hefty external financing requirement makes it one of the most exposed economies in the emerging world to a fresh global shock, the most likely of which is a renewed escalation of the euro... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) GDP is still estimated to have risen strongly in Q3, but we already have plenty of evidence to suggest that the economy may have contracted in the fourth quarter. Indeed, the UK could already be in a... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How encouraging are recent current account trends? The narrowing of the southern euro-zone economies’ current account deficits implies that economic imbalances within the region are shrinking. But the rebalancing process is far from complete. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The US fiscal cliff: implications for Asia The nightmare scenario of the US Congress failing to reach a deal on the fiscal cliff would see growth in Asia’s most trade-dependent countries slow by up to 1 percentage point in 2013. 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade Balance (Oct.) October’s euro-zone trade data confirmed that the region continues to run a large trade surplus by historical standards. But the recent fall in exports is another reason to believe that the consensus... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery is uneven and lacks strength The recovery in emerging market exports remains uneven, with manufacturing economies, mainly in Asia, continuing to outperform commodity exporters. What’s more, there are already some signs that the... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exports to euro-zone to remain a source of EM weakness Weak demand from the euro-zone accounts for about two-fifths of the decline in emerging market GDP growth over the past year or so, and the drag looks set to intensify as Europe slides into an even... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Outlook for the Turkish lira still clouded by external risks Concerns are mounting that Turkey will be faced with a fresh wave of “hot” capital inflows. As it happens, we don’t think this is a credible threat – we expect a fresh escalation of the euro-crisis to... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct. 12) October's flat export volumes are a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. In addition, the widespread decline in imports hints at a slowing domestic economy. Overall, the data suggest that... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct. 12) October’s trade release is the latest to look worse than it really is due to the effects of superstorm Sandy. Nonetheless, another year of tepid global growth will mean that the external sector... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2013 Emerging markets (EMs) will remain a relative bright spot in 2013. But with export demand from the developed world likely to remain subdued and structural problems dragging on growth in many of the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports disappoint Today’s Chinese trade data highlight the continued weakness in demand in the largest global consumer of commodities. The headline data did show commodity imports rising month-on-month but after... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Trade/French & Italian Industrial Prod’n (Oct.) October’ trade and industrial production figures for the euro-zone’s largest three economies brought further evidence that the recession in the region will deepen in the fourth quarter and that it has... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
