Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt offer may be too little, too late Time is running out for Argentina to find a workable solution in a US court case which threatens to trigger a messy sovereign default. While the country’s fate is still technically in its own hands... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q4 12) Swiss GDP data for Q4 confirmed that, while growth is clearly slowing, the economy has continued to outperform most others in Europe. But we expect the economy to stagnate this year as problems in the... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Acc., Bal. of Payments (Q4) & FPC Statement (Mar.) The national accounts confirmed that the UK economy finished last year on a very weak footing and kept alive the risk of a triple-dip recession. Meanwhile, the Financial Policy Committee’s statement... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the record current account deficit a cause for concern? Tomorrow’s current account figures are likely to suggest that the hoped for rebalancing in the economy is still not happening and could put some renewed downward pressure on the pound. 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade still sluggish Figures published today show a pick-up in world trade in January. But the growth rate remains slow by pre-crisis standards, and in many areas trade is still contracting. 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Asia’s export recovery last? Asian exports have strengthened considerably in recent months, providing a boost to regional growth. This Weekly looks at what has been driving the rebound, and explains why a strong and sustained... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trade data show yen weakness has costs as well as benefits The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit widened to a new record in February, reflecting a mix of sluggishness in key export markets, Lunar New Year distortions and the impact of yen weakness on the cost... 21st March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New exchange system won’t solve Venezuela’s dollar drought Venezuela’s new foreign exchange system will do nothing to reduce the economy’s reliance upon high oil prices and petro-loans from China. If either of these props give way, “Chavismo” will quickly... 19th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Divergence in export performance deepens The recovery in Emerging Market exports continues to be concentrated in Asia. By contrast, exports from other EM regions, and commodity producers in particular, remain disappointing. 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Jan.) January’s official industrial and trade figures suggested that the economy is still struggling to rebalance and indicated that the risk of a further contraction in GDP in Q1 remains high. 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey's external vulnerabilities on the rise again After a steady improvement over the past year, the narrowing of Turkey’s current account deficit stalled in January. What’s more, the latest data reveal an increasing dependence on short-term or “hot”... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will Denmark remain the Nordic laggard? Denmark is finally dragging itself out of its long slump. Households have started to deleverage, exporters have become more competitive and banks are now stronger. But given that these adjustments... 12th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's IMF deal hits a snag (again) The IMF’s reservations over Egypt’s economic programme have dealt a blow to hopes that a financing package will be agreed in the short-term. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Egypt is now destined... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q4), French Ind. Prod. & German Trade (Jan.) On balance, the latest batch of hard economic data from the euro-zone’s three largest economies makes fairly grim reading and casts further doubt on the view that the region as whole has begun to grow... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand strong from overseas but appears weaker at home China’s exports were far stronger than expected last month. By contrast, import growth remains slow. In particular, the recent acceleration in domestic activity has done little to boost commodity... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) January's external trade data bodes well for first-quarter real GDP growth, which we anticipate will increase by 1.5% annualised. Other data released this morning also shows that January's residential... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
