Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's IMF deal underlines need for political consensus Tunisia’s IMF deal is a crucial step to helping the economy out of its post-revolution slump. But the agreement also underlines the need for political consensus in the Arab Spring countries in order... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Region increasingly vulnerable to lower commodity prices The slump in commodity markets last week has raised questions over how exposed Latin America is to a period of lower prices. While the risks vary from country-to-country, the bigger picture is that... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China's slowdown: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think these concerns are justified. But while Latin... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Slighter better trade data still little to cheer The March data on exports and the overall trade balance were marginally better than the consensus had expected, but the detail is less encouraging. In particular, the improvement in exports probably... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Introducing the Capital Economics Risk Indicator Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A closer look at South Africa's current account vulnerabilities The sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in 2012 has grabbed most of the headlines, but the more worrying issue is the deterioration in the quality of capital inflows that are... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery loses its shine The recovery of Emerging Market exports has continued in recent months, but forward looking indicators suggest that they will soften over the course of Q2. What’s more, a big divergence remains in the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Exports slow but imports accelerate China’s exports cooled last month, correcting the surprisingly strong growth seen earlier this year. By contrast, imports beat expectations, and the increase appears to have been driven by stronger... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Feb.) While February’s industrial production and trade figures increased the chances that the economy has just about avoided a so-called triple-dip recession, they hardly painted a picture of strength. 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's economic rebound failing to save others Hopes that the rebound in China’s economy will help other EMs look set to be disappointed. Chinese trade data for March will be released later this week (Wednesday). But so far at least, the recovery... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The hare and the tortoise As the UK struggles to grow, she can only look on with envy at the budding recovery in the US. The UK will continue to lag behind for the foreseeable future. But further ahead, she should be able to... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus The winners and losers from China's rise China has come to play a key role as an assembly hub at the centre of increasingly sophisticated supply chain networks. For the rest of Asia, the main winners from this process have been those... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade deal a test of commitment to structural reform The Bank of Japan upended expectations for monetary easing at its first April meeting and, in doing so, put the ball back into the government’s court. “Abenomics” was always meant to include... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) & Trade (Feb.) March's ugly 54,500 decline in employment offsets the previous month's equally surprising gain, leaving employment little changed over the first quarter of this year. Given recent sluggish GDP growth... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb. 13) The larger than expected narrowing in the international trade deficit in February is scant consolation when some of the more up-to-date figures suggest that economic growth has started to lose a bit... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further aid should help to stave off Egyptian default Continued delays to Egypt’s prospective IMF deal have raised the possibility of a default on its FX debt. A team from the Fund is due in Cairo tomorrow to discuss a financing package, but even if a... 2nd April 2013 · 1 min read
