Europe Economics Weekly Ominous signs for German exports Last week’s German trade data revealed a sharp drop in exports, suggesting that the economy’s export engine is not performing particularly well. Much attention has focused on the deteriorating outlook... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exporters remain under pressure The latest batch of EM trade data suggests that exporters continue to struggle in the face of slowing demand from their major global trade partners. Moreover, there isn’t much in the forward-looking... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export slump points to faltering demand China’s exporters in June had their worst single month since the depths of the financial crisis. Efforts to crack down on illicit cross-border capital flows may have played a large part, but the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (May 13) May’s industrial production and trade figures were something of a disappointment given the recent upbeat tone of the manufacturing surveys. Although the overall economic recovery may still have... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: FX reserves drop to 6-year low The slump in Ukrainian FX reserves to a six-year low serves as a reminder that Ukraine’s fragile external position continues to keep it one step away from a full-blown balance of payments crisis. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (May 13) May’s falls in German exports and industrial production add to evidence that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy will be very modest. 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly IMF deal no solution to Pakistan's woes Pakistan has reached an initial agreement with the IMF for a US$5.3bn loan. The deal should avert a balance of payments crisis but, as this Weekly explains, the conditions attached to the loan will... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exports and business investment lacking punch The Bank of Canada has set its economic growth hopes on a revival in exports and business investment. Unfortunately, exports and business investment appear to have lost much needed momentum in the... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Latin America’s hidden vulnerabilities The shift towards tighter monetary policy in the developed world combined with the drop in most commodity prices that we forecast over the next year or so threatens to expose key vulnerabilities in... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update CEDIN won’t solve Argentina’s balance of payments issues Argentina’s new certificate of deposit (CEDIN) is yet another stopgap measure aimed at alleviating a growing shortage of dollars. Without deeper reforms to economic policy, Argentina’s slow-burning... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (Jun.) The EC consumer and business survey for June made pretty encouraging reading, but it remains too soon to conclude that the euro-zone is on the cusp of an economic recovery. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The latest GDP revisions show that the UK has further to go in terms of regaining pre-crisis levels of output than previously thought. And although the breakdown of Q1 GDP now looks a bit more... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade still sluggish The latest data show that world trade growth was pretty weak in both April and May. Forward-looking indicators give a mixed picture, but overall there is little reason to expect trade volumes to pick... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
