Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick-fire reforms won’t prevent renewed taper-turbulence Suggestions that policymakers in troubled emerging markets (EM) now have a window of opportunity to reduce external vulnerabilities before the Fed begins to taper miss the point that these countries’... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2) The final estimate of Q2 GDP left the quarterly rise unrevised at a decent 0.7% and timelier economic data suggest that the recovery has gained more momentum since. However, the news that the current... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade shows signs of life World trade growth picked up a bit in July and the forward-looking surveys suggest that this strength may be sustained in the coming months. However, there is little reason to expect trade growth to... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s widening CA deficit reflects broader economic malaise The improvement in Brazil’s current account in August was due entirely to seasonal factors and does not alter the bigger picture that the deficit has widened sharply since the start of the year... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy far from turning corner We think the Bank of Canada Governor's recent postulation about the economy turning the corner is misplaced. The recent weakness in merchandise exports, excess capacity utilisation and manufacturing... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Aug.) There are tentative signs that the weak yen is having the hoped-for effect on external trade. In August, export volumes were growing faster than import volumes for the first time since last May. But a... 19th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack State sector leads a rebound August’s data confirmed that the economy has turned a corner. Industrial output growth was the strongest since spring last year. Investment and exports also gathered pace. It is notable though that... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of improvement in EM trade data The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth accelerated in July. What’s more, on the basis of the latest leading indicators, a further improvement in EM exports looks... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) German investor sentiment strengthened in September, suggesting that the economic recovery should continue, albeit at a slower pace than in Q2. But the fall in euro-zone export values in July suggests... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Have exporters diversified at the wrong time? The recent slowdown in emerging market (EM) economies begs the question of whether UK exporters have shot themselves in the foot by expanding into these markets in recent years. However, the growth... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fed tapering unlikely to put region’s external positions at risk The turbulence in financial markets over the past few months has raised concerns about how emerging markets will perform as global monetary conditions tighten. In the case of Africa, current account... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How important is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone? The free trade zone about to be set up in Shanghai is intended as a testing ground for new policies, with a focus on liberalising the service sector, and financial services in particular. Successful... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update US exporters benefitting from euro-zone recovery Over the next two years, US exporters will continue to benefit from the recovery in overseas demand, particularly in the euro-zone. But the global economy is unlikely to be strong enough to generate... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update External financing risks persist in South Africa South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q2, and the shortfall continues to be funded in largepart by short-term capital inflows. As a result, the economy remains among the most vulnerable to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
