Global Trade Monitor Global trade volumes fall back in August The pick-up in world trade in July was not sustained in August as exports from emerging economies continued to be weak. What's more, data already published for September suggest that trade may have... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The monthly trade deficit was basically unchanged at $38.8bn in August, suggesting that net external trade had a neutral impact on overall third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was near 2.0%... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) 2013 The widening of the trade deficit to a record high in September highlights that the sharp fall of the yen over the past year has had little impact on export competitiveness. While lower import prices... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Assessing two key risks to the Swiss economy We think that the continued strength of the franc will weigh heavily on Switzerland’s exports for some time yet. But fears of overheating in the property market seem overdone, implying that a brighter... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? The Hong Kong dollar peg was introduced 30 years ago this week. Although the peg creates a number of problems, it remains the best option. We expect it to remain in place for many more years. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Continued recovery in EM trade The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth maintained its upward trend in August. Forward-looking indicators point to further gains over the year ahead. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Thailand’s current account deficit a problem? Thailand’s current account has slipped from surplus into deficit in the last couple of years. We expect the deficit to stabilise over the coming year and think the chances of a balance of payments... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Ind. Prod. & Trade (Aug.), Credit Cond. Survey (Q3) August’s weak industrial production and trade figures signal that GDP growth in the third quarter might not be quite as strong as the business surveys have suggested. Meanwhile, the latest Credit... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) & Housing Starts (Sep.) The unexpected widening of the trade deficit in August suggests that net trade will remain largely neutral for third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate to be 2.0% annualised. With export volumes... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Suez revenue is not offsetting broader economic losses The fact that the Egyptian authorities seem determined on keeping the Suez Canal open is clearly a positive for world trade. But it is not enough to offset the weakness in other sectors of the... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence in the recovery strengthens The economic recovery is becoming more entrenched, with GDP confirmed as having grown by 0.7% in Q2 and expansion evident across all three main sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, sentiment has risen... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Falling inflation increases scope for monetary easing The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to 1.1% in September – its lowest rate since February 2010 – leaves it well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2%”. While falling energy inflation has... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: trade deficit to keep pressure on the rand South Africa’s trade deficit was wider than expected in August, as the ongoing weakness of the rand led to a surge in the local-currency cost of oil imports. In turn, a widening trade deficit could... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
