Global Economics Update Pace of further globalisation likely to remain sluggish Globalisation appears to have stalled since 2008, even as the world economy has recovered. This suggests that structural changes have reduced the incentives for closer integration. With little... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The latest euro-zone trade data indicate that although the trade surplus continues to widen, weak global demand and the strong euro are holding back exports. 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Sep.) and Productivity & ULC (Q3) The trade deficit widened to a four-month high of $41.8bn in September, from $38.7bn, suggesting that third-quarter GDP growth will need to be revised down to around 2.5% annualised, from 2.8%. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's trade figures confirm that, for the third quarter as a whole, exports were a material drag on GDP growth, which we estimate was 2.5% annualised. 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Commodity exporters lag behind in EM export recovery We wouldn't read too much into the slowdown in EM export growth in September. The monthly data are volatile and there are already signs that exports rebounded in October. Nonetheless, EM export growth... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Subsidy cuts – lessons from Jordan The swingeing fuel subsidy cuts imposed by Jordan's government a year ago have, so far at least, made few inroads in narrowing the country's fiscal deficit. Measures to replace subsidies have tended... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) & Current Account (Sep.) The rise in the outlook component of the Economy Watchers Survey to a six month high suggests that economic conditions remained robust at the start of the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the record current... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly The fallout from Fukushima The impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on energy imports is often overestimated. By contrast, the impact on exports is generally overlooked. The disaster has significantly reduced how much... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Sep.) September’s trade figures show that the UK economy continues to see an imbalance between domestic and overseas demand. And while export surveys have been positive, consumer demand may mean the trade... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Positive signs on foreign demand Strong imports of industrial commodities last month suggest that China’s investment led rebound was holding up relatively well early in Q4. However, with policymakers again focussing on risks from... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Encouraging start to the fourth quarter Global growth appears to have accelerated in October, as suggested by the rise in business surveys to their highest levels since early 2011. After accelerating in Q3, the US economy seems to have... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack ECB likely to soften stance but refrain from action The fall in euro-zone CPI inflation to a four year low of 0.7% has raised the prospect of a bout of outright deflation in the euro-zone economy. While cost pressures are not as weak as they were when... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery strengthens and broadens The economic recovery still seems to be gathering speed. The 0.8% quarterly rise in GDP in the third quarter was the strongest expansion seen since Q2 2010. And whereas a year or so ago, the recovery... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What’s causing the widening in the trade deficit? Japan’s trade deficit has reached a record high in recent months. This is often attributed to a surge in energy imports after the shutdown of the country’s nuclear reactors. However, energy import... 1st November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus EU trade deal would provide only modest benefits The Canadian government's new free trade agreement with the EU, should it be ratified, will provide only modest economic benefits. Since this ratification will take a year or two, the trade deal does... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
