Emerging Markets Trade Monitor "Fragile five" trade balances improving EM export growth continued to gather pace in November and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery has further to run. There are signs that the trade balances of the “fragile five” EMs... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's flat export and import trade figures suggest that the economy lost some momentum mid-way through the fourth quarter of last year. Given the fairly strong start to that quarter, however, we... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to a four-year low of $34.3bn in November, from $39.3bn, suggesting that fourth-quarter GDP growth could turn out to be above 3.0% annualised. 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling unemployment unlikely to prompt rate hike While unemployment is falling swiftly towards the 7% threshold above which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has pledged to keep official interest rates on hold, it remains unlikely that rates will... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thailand ends the year in crisis Thailand heads into 2014 in political crisis. Anti-government protests that began in November have pushed the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, into dissolving parliament and calling new elections... 24th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade growth picks up The volume of world trade rose in October and surveys suggest that it may have accelerated further since then. But the recovery in trade volumes continues to lag behind the pick-up in economic... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Nat. Acc., Bal. of Pay. (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) While the national accounts showed that the economic recovery has been stronger than previously thought this year, they also provided a few reasons to doubt that it will be able to maintain its recent... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) The weak yen is largely to blame for the recent widening of the trade deficit. As domestic demand accelerates ahead of the consumption tax hike, the deficit may well widen further in the near-term... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Retail sales growth accelerating The recent pick-up in the growth rate of underlying retail sales suggests that we are finally seeing a strengthening in domestic demand. It may well be sustained too. Coming out of the recession, the... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) We’re not convinced that the low rate of inflation in November will prevent the Fed from announcing tomorrow that it will begin to taper its asset purchases, although the decision remains finely... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) The latest euro-zone trade data highlight that the external sector remains too weak to singlehandedly power an economic recovery. 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor WTO agreement unlikely to be a game changer The EM export recovery continued in October, led mainly by net commodity importers. Various indiciators point to gradually improving export conditions, suggesting further gains in the months ahead... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) October’s figures on industrial production and trade offered some good news for the Government’s oft-proclaimed ambition for an economy more biased towards manufacturing. But, on the external side... 10th December 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update "Historic" WTO agreement is not such a big deal The deal signed in Bali this weekend was reached only after the bulk of the Doha trade agenda was dropped from the negotiations. We doubt that it will make much difference to world trade volumes and... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Oct.) October’s German industrial production data suggested that the country’s main growth engine has not only stalled, but gone into reverse. 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
