Japan Economics Update Nuclear shutdown not the main reason for surging trade deficit The widening in Japan's trade deficit is often attributed to a surge in energy imports as a result of the nuclear shutdown. However, the jump in the energy import bill is mostly due to the impact of... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Dec.) The seasonally-adjusted trade deficit narrowed in December, but the full-year deficit surged. The trade shortfall is likely to widen again in the near-term as domestic demand is brought forward ahead... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A little help from overseas The rebound in US export growth late last year can be linked directly to strengthening demand in both China and the euro-zone. Given that growth in China is now slowing and that the dollar is... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the economy rebalance? A shift in the driver of growth from consumers to investment and exports continues to be the great white whale of economic policy. While there are good reasons to aspire to a more balanced recovery... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade growth recovering slowly The volume of world trade rose marginally in November and surveys suggest that it may have accelerated since then. Nonetheless, the pace of growth continues to lag significantly behind its pre-crisis... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's deteriorating external position a sign that all is not well Russia’s current account surplus declined over the course of 2013 and, for the first time since the 2008/09 crisis, became insufficient to cover capital outflows. Of course, with over $500bn in FX... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Could local politicians block the restart of nuclear energy? The upcoming gubernatorial election in Tokyo is being widely billed as a referendum on national energy policy, with one prominent candidate running on an anti-nuclear platform. However, the influence... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook A brighter outlook We expect global growth to pick up gradually during the coming two years as private sector spending accelerates and fiscal austerity eases. Among advanced economies, the US will lead the recovery... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers cast shadow over recovery The European economy looks set for another year of weak growth in 2014, with the euro-zone likely to do little more than stagnate. Against that background, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The latest euro-zone trade data confirm that the external sector continues to struggle against the strong euro. This will add to pressure on the ECB to take further policy action in the coming months. 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America will further reduce its reliance on oil imports America will import fewer barrels of oil both this year and next but, while this will narrow the trade deficit a bit, it won’t provide a major boost to the economy. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Dec) & Current Account (Nov) The renewed rise in the current activity component of the Economy Watchers Survey shows that conditions remain strong for now. But the prospect of a slump in demand after the upcoming consumption tax... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update First appearances deceptive At first sight, today’s trade data from China imply that export demand has weakened while domestic demand has picked up speed. But once we take into account previous distortions in the export data... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) The trade figures have continued to pour cold water on hopes of an export-led recovery. And with little sign that a noteworthy recovery is emerging in the euro-zone, exports look set to remain subdued... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The leader of the pack? The UK economy has leapt towards the top of the international growth table and there are good reasons to think it can stay there. We now expect the economy to grow by 3% this year and next. 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflationary pressures still building Recent euro-zone inflation data have provided firmer signs that CPI inflation will remain well below the ECB’s 2% stability ceiling for longer than the Bank itself expects. Admittedly, headline CPI... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
