Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s falling gas exports underline need for reform A combination of stagnant production and rapidly increasing domestic consumption means that Egypt is set to become a net importer of natural gas in the near future. Support from the Gulf should help... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Idle industrial capacity likely to grow further The fall in manufacturing capacity utilisation over the past year casts further doubt over the Bank of Canada's expectation that the external sector can take over from households in driving economic... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial malaise could soon start to ease Although January’s euro-zone industrial figures made disappointing reading, the recent weakness of the sector partly reflects a plunge in energy production. Encouragingly, orders data paint a more... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) The latest trade figures show that the economic recovery is still struggling to broaden out to include exports. This looks likely to remain the case so long as the euro-zone’s economic recovery... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Are China’s exporters struggling to compete? The recent slide of the renminbi and February’s weak exports have been linked by some to a supposed loss of competitiveness in China’s export sector. In fact, despite rapid wage growth and trend... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China fears resurface The past few days have seen renewed fears of a hard landing in China ripple through EM financial markets. These fears are nothing new and have in fact resurfaced at a time when EM export growth to... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India on cusp of export rebound With India’s domestic demand held back by tight monetary policy, export demand is likely to play a pivotal role in any economic recovery this year. Recent export data have been disappointing. But a... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it seems South Africa’s current account deficit fell to close to a two-year low in the final quarter of last year. But while on paper this appears to be good news, a deeper look reveals that it was driven... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will onshoring boost the recovery? There are some signs that the benefits of offshoring may be diminishing. Indeed, a reverse process of ‘onshoring’ could already be in train. But onshoring seems likely to be confined to the... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Manufacturers outperforming Export growth was more or less flat at an EM-wide level in January, but there’s a growing divergence at a country level, with highly-open manufacturing economies in Central Europe and East Asia... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bounce back from weather disruption The unusually severe winter has been playing havoc with the incoming economic data but, once the weather returns to seasonal norms, we expect the US economy to perform strongly this year and in 2015... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Headline shrink in exports is misleading Yesterday's inflation data point to subdued price pressures. Meanwhile, despite the seasonal volatility in the latest trade data, foreign demand and exports remain healthy. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Revised) & Current Account (Jan) Despite a small downward revision in the second estimate, last quarter's GDP figures were still not as bad as the headlines imply. 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The fact that payroll employment rebounded in February despite the unusually bad weather pretty much guarantees that the Fed will taper its asset purchases further at the mid-March policy meeting. 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
