Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too soon to write off Japan as an export powerhouse The swing in Japan’s trade balance from large surpluses to large deficits is back in the news after the March data (released yesterday) confirmed a record shortfall in the fiscal year just ended... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Mar.) The widening of the trade deficit in March should be followed by smaller shortfalls in coming months as consumers rein in spending in the wake of the consumption tax hike. 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Apr.) & Euro-zone Trade (Feb.) April’s ZEW survey brought further evidence of strength in the German economy. But the fall in expectations raises some concerns over the medium-term outlook. 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus A Chinese hard landing: Which Asian countries are most at risk? A hard landing in China’s economy is one of the biggest risks clouding the outlook for the rest of Emerging Asia. A slump in Chinese demand would hurt economies with close trade links to China, with... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Exports cannot offset Thailand’s domestic demand weakness With domestic demand struggling under the weight of the ongoing political unrest, exports have become the main beacon of hope for Thailand’s economy this year. However, we doubt the export sector can... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia would be the main casualty of a “gas war” There would be very few winners from any further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, but Russia still has more to lose in economic and financial terms than the West. In particular, Western European... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Deflation dangers persist The recovery in the European economy appears to have picked up a bit of speed in the early months of 2014. The euro-zone now looks set to expand by 1% or more this year, a significant improvement on... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth still sluggish EM-wide exports fell in February and, while this may be due in part to distortions in the Chinese data, the bigger picture is that EM export growth has been sluggish for the past two years. There are... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Mar 14.) Today's trade data should be interpreted with care, as sharp contractions in trade with Hong Kong and Taiwan appear to be distorting the broader picture. Exports to other regions actually grew 7.8% y... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Feb.) February’s trade figures showed that the economy is still struggling to rebalance towards exports. And in the coming years, progress is likely to be slow at best while demand in the euro-zone remains... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Pacific Alliance: Trading up? The Pacific Alliance pact has raised hopes of a boom in intra-regional trade, but the high degree of overlap between the export baskets of the member nations makes that unlikely. Nonetheless, the... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Feb.) The decline in the current account deficit in February was hardly surprising. Looking ahead, we expect the balance to return to surplus. 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Falling inflation enhances recovery prospects The last month has brought more good news on inflation. CPI inflation eased from 1.9% to 1.7% in February, the lowest rate since October 2009. Meanwhile, past falls in commodity and import prices... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
