UK Data Response Industrial Production and Trade (Mar.) Whilst March’s industrial production data indicated that the manufacturing recovery remains robust, the latest trade data provided tentative signs of some rebalancing towards the external sector. 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Today's trade data are more upbeat about the state of foreign demand than the recovery in the headline numbers suggests. If we strip out exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan, which were most affected by... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack West outperforming East The US is enjoying a strong rebound after its weather-induced slowdown, the UK has extended its period of rapid growth into Q2 and the recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum. On the other hand... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) While Canada's external merchandise trade surplus shrunk unexpectedly in March, from a bigger than previously estimated surplus in February, the more discouraging news was the declines in export and... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $40.4bn in March, from $41.9bn, was a smaller narrowing than the BEA had assumed in its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. Accordingly, when added... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Stress-testing the US economy against a recession in China Even if China endured a financial crisis and a recession, the hit to the US economy would probably be fairly small. China is just not that important to America’s banks, businesses and investors. We... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Slower growth in China won’t derail Asia’s export recovery Export growth from Emerging Asia remains lacklustre. Things should improve over the next couple of years on the back of a recovery in the developed world, which should more than compensate for weaker... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The Ukraine crisis and Russia: five key questions With Russia facing further sanctions from the West over its alleged involvement in the turmoil in the east of Ukraine, in this Focus we answer five key questions about the potential economic and... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan’s exports pick up again? Japan’s exports have been broadly flat in recent years, reflecting a mix of cyclical headwinds (such as weak global demand) and structural pressures (notably the shift in production capacity abroad)... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Sterling's strength should not derail the recovery While this week’s GDP figures for the first quarter look set to confirm that the economic recovery has gained further momentum, one potential threat to the sustainability of the recovery is the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s tourism deficit offsetting surplus in goods trade Outbound tourism is becoming an important factor in China’s international payments balance, contributing to a deficit in services trade that is partially offsetting the goods trade surplus. 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Sluggish EM exports holding back global trade World trade appears to have been sluggish throughout the first quarter of 2014, despite evidence that economic activity picked up. This is due to a downturn in exports from the major emerging... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
