Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) May’s euro-zone trade data provided some tentative signs that exports may bebeginning to pick up. But the external sector remains too weak to offset fears that thedomestic recovery is faltering at an... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising EM trade surplus a result of weaker growth The emerging market-wide trade surplus rose to a record high in US dollar terms in May. But while this would, at first sight, appear to be a positive development, much of the adjustment appears to be... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore manufacturing will continue to struggle Singapore’s manufacturing exports have been a consistent weak point in the economy over recent years. A recovery in global demand should help, but the problems are more than cyclical. In fact, the... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth picks up, but reasons for caution Emerging Market export growth strengthened a little in May and may have accelerated further last month. Even so, the latest country-level trade figures have fallen short of expectations, and suggest... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s industrial metals imports likely to fall further China’s imports of key commodities were weak in June reflecting the slowdown in the property sector as well as lower import activity related to financing deals. In our view, these factors are likely... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Despite an increase in the headline growth rate, June’s exports were disappointing, perhaps signalling that global demand at the end of the second quarter was not as healthy as had been hoped. China’s... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (May) May’s trade figures provided more disappointing news that manufacturers may be struggling to cope with sterling’s strength. And with exporters still facing a number of headwinds, we expect export... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets? While the European economic recovery probably picked up a bit of speed in the second quarter of the year, there are growing signs that Q2 was as good as it is likely to get. Activity indicators in the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) & Current Account (May) The Economy Watchers Survey for June shows that optimism about the outlook has stabilised close to pre-tax hike levels and suggests that the economic recovery will continue in the second half of the... 8th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How will the US stock market handle Fed tightening? The US stock market has tended to fare quite well during previous Fed tightening cycles. Although we think its performance in the next cycle will be below average, we still expect it to creep higher. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US pulling further ahead of the euro-zone All the evidence suggests that the US economy has bounced back during the past few months, after its weather-induced slump. Business surveys have remained buoyant, credit growth has accelerated and... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Pay growth likely to spring back soon While the economic recovery appears to have accelerated in Q2, workers are still failing to see the benefits in their pay packets. Annual growth in average weekly earnings fell from 2.2% to -1.7% in... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The decline in the merchandise trade deficit in May looks encouraging, particularly since it was largely driven by a strong rebound in exports. Unfortunately, that rebound was heavily influenced by... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The first quarter’s national accounts brought some positive news on the pace and balance of the UK’s recovery. And while the current account deficit has remained extremely large, there are reasons to... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
