China Data Response Balance of Payments (Q2) China’s balance of payments data for Q2 show substantial outflows on the financial account. But this does not mean that capital has been fleeing the country. Instead it is a reflection of the fact... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Interest rates heading in opposite directions The Russian central bank caused a surprise earlier this month by hiking its one-week repo rate in a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows ahead of a fresh sanctions imposed by the US and EU. This... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sanctions on Russia a further blow to Finnish economy Finland’s close economic ties with neighbouring Russia mean that the EU’s stiffer sanctions on Russia announced yesterday are likely to deal another blow to the Finnish economy. Even if the direct... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What does the anti-corruption campaign mean for the economy? China’s anti-corruption campaign has claimed its biggest scalp to date with today’s formal announcement of an investigation into former Standing Committee member Zhou Yongkang. Over the past 18 months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that there was a strong rebound in economic growth at the end of Q2. The property sector remains a drag, but this was more than offset by relatively broad-based... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off latest standoff with Russia The renewed violence in eastern Ukraine, the imposition of fresh sanctions by the US and the threat of further moves by the EU have weighed on Russian equities. But the recent falls haven’t been as... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are tensions with China hurting exports? Japan’s share of Chinese imports has fallen below that of the EU and South Korea recently. One reason is that large numbers of Japanese firms have shifted production facilities to China. This shouldn... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How competitive is Greece now? The sharp fall in wages and recent flurry of structural reforms in Greece has not yet fed intocompetitiveness gains. Greece is still not able to run the sustained external surpluses that it needs. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Advanced economies a drag on global trade The latest data underline that global trade volumes remain very weak, even as worldGDP growth has accelerated. Indeed, the volume of world trade fell slightly in May,according to data released today... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jun.) While the trade deficit widened last month, it remains much smaller than before the sales tax hike. This suggests that net trade finally ceased to be a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt crisis: no stay brings default closer Judge Griesa’s refusal today to grant the Argentine government a stay in the ongoing debt dispute meansthat it is increasingly likely that the authorities will default on 30th July. Default is another... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How big are the risks from a deteriorating current account? Japan’s current account surplus has fallen sharply in recent years, as the trade balance has moved deeply into the red. The current account balance is more likely to rebound into surplus than slip... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
