Latin America Economics Focus Venezuela on the brink of a balance of payments crisis Rampant inflation, a weakening currency and falling foreign exchange reserves mean that Venezuela has all of the ingredients for a balance of payments crisis. We expect GDP to contract by a cumulative... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Treading water Economic growth in Latin America slowed further in the first half of 2014 and we see little chance of a strong rebound over the coming quarters. The key props to strong growth in the past decade are... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Aug.) Stronger-than-expected export growth for August points to healthy foreign demand. In contrast, weaker-than-expected import growth suggests that cooling investment, particularly in the property sector... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (July) The second estimate of Q2 GDP was little changed from the first and still shows a sharp decline in output last quarter. Meanwhile, the current account surplus may widen further in coming months as... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Gulf between US and euro-zone widens The US and euro-zone economies have diverged further in the past few months, as growth in the single currency area has stalled but the US recovery has stepped up a gear. Moreover, the gap between the... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The recovery in Emerging Europe has fizzled out in recent months and we think growth will be sluggish over the coming quarters. The crisis in Ukraine presents one headwind, particularly for Russia... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The further growth in export volumes in July is encouraging, but we're still not convinced this strength will be sustained. Nevertheless, with imports increasing at a more moderate pace, the... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) & ADP (Aug.) The further decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $40.5bn in July, from $40.8bn the month before, suggests that net external trade will make a larger positive contribution to third... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global imbalances to remain below pre-crisis levels After narrowing abruptly in 2009, the world’s major current account imbalances rebounded between 2010 and 2012. This raised concerns that there could be a resumption of potentially destabilising... 4th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is Yellen’s new labour index any good? The labour market conditions index referred to by Fed Chair Janet Yellen in her speech at Jackson Hole doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know. Moreover, it may not be very useful in the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK better placed to weather another euro-zone storm With euro-zone activity indicators having softened over recent months, it looks as if the currency bloc’s nascent recovery is already losing steam. Without bolder policy action from the ECB, the risks... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weaker growth looms for twin deficit countries Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable earlier this month by formally requesting assistance from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. This... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update On the cusp of another slowdown? China’s economy continues to face headwinds, particularly from the property sector. But the key lesson from recent months is that policymakers have plenty of tools at their disposal to shore up growth... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Dubai's GREs slowly tackling their debt problems Over the past month Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs), which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, have made further efforts to tackle their huge mountains of debt. The recovery... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Export recovery continues to stutter The region's exporters are still struggling. Although exports from Emerging Asia as a whole expanded at their fastest pace all year in June, this was mostly due to a recovery in China's exports, which... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
