Europe Economics Focus How bad is Belgium’s competitiveness problem? The improvement in southern euro-zone nations’ competitiveness has left some core countries, such as Belgium, lagging behind. If Belgium and other uncompetitive economies are unable to close the... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly More monetary easing needed to offset fiscal drag Japan is emerging from its second-quarter slump but weak household consumption and business investment, combined with further fiscal austerity, are likely to keep domestic demand sluggish. What’s more... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Working nine to nine? Rapid growth in the UK’s workforce in spite of both demographic and international trends has been crucial to sustaining the economic recovery and preventing it from stoking inflation. Looking ahead... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on Latin America The biggest loser from the drop in oil prices within Latin America will be Venezuela and, although the government may make its debt servicing obligations this month, a default seems more likely than... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update German weakness takes its toll on CEE Of all the reasons to expect softer growth in Central and Eastern Europe, the weakness of the German economy is by far the most compelling. Indeed, we estimate that it accounts for the bulk of the... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) & Final CPI (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in August reflected a drop in importsrelated to weak domestic demand rather than a rise in exports. It still looks like theeconomy failed to grow in Q3 and... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices not a major headache for the Gulf The ongoing slide in oil prices doesn’t pose too much of a threat to the Gulf economies. But it does reinforce the point that a key driver of the region’s economies over the past decade is weakening... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EMs struggle to follow China’s lead Although EM export growth slowed in August, the general trend since the middle of the year has been one of improvement and more timely figures suggest that the recovery resumed last month. However, a... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lower commodity prices and what they mean for Lat Am Fresh falls in global commodity prices in recent weeks have stoked concerns about how Latin America will fare as the tailwinds from the global commodities boom fade. The short point is that regional... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) The September trade data suggest that foreign demand remains healthy, albeit probably not as strong as the pick-up in export growth suggests. Import growth also strengthened but it was driven by a... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Inflation looks to have remained low in September, with weak commodity prices and a cooling housing market helping to keep broad price pressures subdued. We see slightly higher inflation ahead, due to... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Rising Indian demand not enough to boost coal prices Slower economic growth in China and the EU, combined with active efforts by these regions and the US to move away from coal power, have caused coal prices to slump dramatically over the last few... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
