Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cooling housing market won’t freeze the recovery Given the perceived boost to the economic recovery from strong gains in house prices over the past year or so, signs that the housing market is beginning to cool may raise concerns that the overall... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Little reaction in the Gulf to fall in oil prices The slide in oil prices this month has raised concerns in some quarters that the Gulf States will need to tighten fiscal policy. But while the prospect of this has been talked about in Oman, lower oil... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack No sign of improvement Economic growth in Emerging Asia is showing no sign of improvement. Our GDP tracker is pointing to growth of around 4.5% in the third quarter, which is roughly unchanged from the previous quarter and... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Imports as well as exports look suspicious Most of the headlines questioning China’s September trade data have focused on anomalies on the export side. But China’s imports also seem to have been distorted, which may be a sign that firms are... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower oil price adds to risks Alongside the potential for a sharp correction in the domestic housing market, the recent slump in crude oil prices represents a second risk to the Canadian economic outlook. We expect GDP growth to... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Broad-based malaise in world trade continues World trade contracted in August, and more timely data suggest that it has continued to fare badly since then. But rather than being another sign that the global economy has stalled, the slowdown in... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Restructuring petro-loans won’t save Venezuela from default On the face of it, the Venezuelan government’s restructuring of petro-loans from China should boost foreign currency revenues and ease the economy’s severe dollar drought. But in reality, the deal... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Low oil prices provide relief for MENA’s resource-poor economies In contrast to the Gulf, the rest of the MENA region stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. That being said, a period of low oil prices alone won’t be sufficient to reduce these economies’... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in jobless claims illustrates labour market strength There are still areas of the labour market where conditions could be better, particularly the elevated number of part-time workers looking for full-time work and the lack of a meaningful acceleration... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why has the euro-zone slowed so sharply? The surprisingly sharp slowdown in the euro-zone economy over recent months may be partly the result of temporary negative factors such as the Ukraine crisis. But the underlying picture is still one... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) Japan's trade deficit edged higher in September, against expectations, but a weaker yen, falling commodity prices and the sluggishness of domestic demand should combine to deliver a narrower deficit... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
