US Chart Pack Slump in gasoline prices an unexpected boon The unexpected slump in the national retail gasoline price, from a peak of $3.80 per gallon in the summer to a near four-year low of $3.00 now, will provide a sizeable boost to fourth-quarter real... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yen's collapse to have only modest impact on US economy Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Lower commodity prices bring mixed news for EMs Recent falls in commodity prices have left some emerging market (EM) economies in a tailspin. The S&P GSCI, an index of commodity prices, has fallen by more than 20% since its June peak, largely due... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weaker Portuguese exports show need for more reform The renewed slowdown in the growth of Portuguese exports in recent quarters has underlined the need for the country to implement further decisive reforms in order to lift growth from the anaemic rates... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Oct.) Japan’s trade deficit shrank in October, and is set to narrow further due to a falling energy import bill. 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Cheaper loonie will help to boost tourism trade The recent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar will provide a much-needed boost to domestic tourism. That support, aided by a steadily improving US economy, could add as much as 0.5 percentage... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Acc. (Q3) Annual GDP growth in Chile dropped to a five-year low in Q3, but on a quarterly basis growth edged up a little. We expect a further, albeit gradual, recovery over the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia-China FTA will help rebalance Australia’s economy Australia signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with China yesterday that will give its exporters a surprising amount of access to China’s market. The biggest opportunities lie in the agriculture and... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Sep.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus to a new record in September was an encouraging sign that exporters are starting to benefit from the weaker euro. But the ECB will need to deliver on hints... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Oct.) Given the recent sharp falls in global oil prices, the relatively small narrowing of India’s trade deficit in October is disappointing. A renewed slump in exports is to blame. Looking ahead... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China-Korea free trade deal is not a game changer The recently announced free-trade deal between Korea and China has generated plenty of optimistic headlines. However, we are sceptical the deal will have much impact, and it certainly isn’t going to... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could the second China – Russia gas deal impact prices? Additional proposed gas exports from Russia to China are unlikely to have a major impact on European gas prices. We see a greater threat arising from the potential long-term price impact of Europe’s... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
