US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Nov.) India’s trade deficit widened in November as a pick-up in exports wasn’t enough to offset a renewed surge in gold imports. But the overall deficit still remains at sustainable levels, and should... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Falling commodity prices douse the EM export recovery The recent modest recovery in EM exports stalled in October as global growth lost some momentum and sharp falls in commodity prices added to difficulties facing commodity exporters. More timely data... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) While the trade deficit narrowed in October, we would caution against reading too much into this improvement. Trade data are very volatile and exporters look likely to struggle further over the coming... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q3) Data released today show that India’s current account deficit widened again in Q3, but we doubt that policymakers will be too concerned. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports supported by stockbuilding Lower prices encouraged some opportunistic Chinese buying of commodities last month but the likelihood is that, in many cases, stocks were being replenished rather than this being a sign of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Despite the fall in oil prices and the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s current account deficit remained large in Q3. If lower oil prices are maintained, as we expect, then the deficit should... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Nov.) The November trade data suggest that both external and domestic demand have softened somewhat. That said, we think that underlying conditions have held up better than the sharp falls in headline... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q3 revised) & Current Account (Oct) The second estimate of Q3 GDP showed that the economy shrank at an even faster pace than initially estimated. However, a return to growth in Q4 looks likely. 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) October’s trade data will quite rightly do little to temper the optimism generated by the Employment Report, even though they suggest that net trade will make a slightly weaker contribution to GDP... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The breakdown of euro-zone GDP in Q3 offered little encouragement that the region’s lacklustre economic recovery is about to pick up any meaningful momentum. 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Slump in oil price to support global growth in 2015 Global growth has cooled a bit in recent months. The expansion in the US and UK has continued, but China’s economy has slowed further, the euro-zone is stagnant and Japan is in recession. Looking... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay recovery finally gets underway At last, the UK’s real wage squeeze appears to be over. Annual growth in average weekly earnings excluding bonuses picked up from 1.2% to 1.8% in September and so exceeded the same month’s CPI... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
