UK Economics Weekly 2015: Another year of strength? Last week’s data releases provided more encouragement that the economic recovery has a fair amount of momentum at the end of 2014. Indeed, barring any last-minute shocks, the UK economy appears to... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Rate surge puts PBOC in a bind Interbank interest rates this week recorded their biggest increase in several months. The rate increase is much smaller than at this time last year but a key difference is that the People’s Bank cut... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reasons for optimism as 2014 ends On the face of it, 2014 has been another disappointing year for the Indianeconomy. Growth over the first three quarters averaged just 5.2% y/y, only asmall improvement from the trough of 2012-2013 and... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Impact of Russian wheat restrictions should be limited As a major exporter of wheat, any measures imposed by Russia to keep more supplies at home arelikely to result in higher global prices, though current market conditions should limit the upside... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack An unambiguous strengthening in activity The incoming news on activity has been unambiguously strong and, when taken together with the boost from the further fall in oil prices, has made us more confident that GDP will grow by at least 3%... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus The impact of the US shale oil boom on Lat Am There is growing evidence that, even before the latest drop in oil prices, the US shale oil revolution had started to weigh on oil producers in Latin America. Oil exports to the US from three of the... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the latest currency sell-off The fall in most Latin American currencies over the past few weeks has taken them through both our end-2014 and our end-2015 forecasts. We still expect most currencies – notably the Brazilian real –... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lessons from 1998 There are more differences than similarities between the current crisis in Russia and the crisis in 1998, but one point in common is that both have their roots in severe strains in the country’s... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Current Account (Q3) November’s consumer prices figures leave inflation on course to fall someway below 1.0% next summer. But this won’t prevent the Fed from dropping its “considerable time” pledge from its policy... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Russian crisis push the euro-zone into recession? The euro-zone’s direct trade and financial links with Russia are relatively weak. Nonetheless, even a modest negative impact at a time when the region is already facing renewed internal problems could... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) The drop in the trade shortfall in November should be followed by a further narrowing in coming months as lower oil prices will reduce the import bill. 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global impact of Russia’s crisis (revisited) The dramatic escalation of Russia’s crisis over the past twenty four hours is clearly not good news for the world economy. Nonetheless, both trade and financial links between Russia and the rest of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Dec.) & Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) December’s sharp rise in German ZEW investor sentiment is an encouraging sign that confidence has so far not been hit by renewed problems in Greece, but the improvement is at odds with the weakness of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
