Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone QE largely positive for UK Anything that kick-starts the UK’s biggest trading partner clearly has the potential to be good news this side of the Channel too. That said, the main channel through which we think QE will work in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Consumer confidence soaring While financial markets are concerned that the slump in energy prices and the drop back in long-term interest rates partly reflect the weakness of economic growth in Europe and Asia, consumers have no... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further rate cuts are on the way The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) shocked markets earlier this month by cutting its main policy rates at an unscheduled meeting. The accompanying statement also paved the way for further policy... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets should return Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Crisis 2.0? The onset of deflation in the euro-zone and the recent developments in Greece have served as powerful reminders of the lasting effects of the region’s debt crisis. The ECB will seek to tackle... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks shift to easing mode Having been in tightening mode at the end of 2014, a number of EM central banks have surprised markets by loosening monetary policy since the start of the year, with policymakers in Romania, India... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Trade (Dec.) Following the RBI’s decision to cut interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier today, data showing that the trade deficit narrowed in December underline that the central bank has scope to loosen... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Oil exporters feel the squeeze The value of EM exports fell in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in November as the slide in oil prices dragged on exports from energy producing EMs. The further slump in oil prices... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The widening of the euro-zone trade surplus in November to another record high encouragingly reflected a small rise in exports rather than the weakness of imports, suggesting that exporters are... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The latest Chinese trade data show a rebound in most commodity imports in December, led by oil. While some buying was probably opportunistic, taking advantage of lower prices, the data also support... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit North Africa We’ve written extensively in recent months about the losses the Gulf economies face in light of the plunge in oil prices. But in this Watch we explain why the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Weak exports and strong non-oil imports caused Turkey’s current account deficit to widen in November, in spite of the sharp fall in oil prices. All in all, the data provide early signs that Turkey is... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) Stronger-than-expected export growth points to healthy external demand. Meanwhile, although import growth remains subdued, a pick-up in commodity import volumes has prevented falling commodity prices... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Nov.) The drop in the current account surplus in November was much smaller than expected, and should be followed by a renewed increase in coming months. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
