UK Economics Weekly Is a recovery in exports finally underway? One feature that the recovery has been lacking for a long time is a pick-up in exports. But last week’s GDP figures offered some encouragement that the much-anticipated rebalancing of the economy is... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Indian budget likely to be a small positive for gold The Indian government’s budget, to be unveiled this weekend, is widely expected to include a cut in the import duty on gold. This should provide a further boost to the local market following... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Delay to Nigeria’s election puts naira under pressure The delay to Nigeria’s election and the controversy over the alleged misappropriation of oil revenues have cast the spotlight on the country’s weak governance. After the decision to delay the election... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Brief deflation won't hold up the Fed Although the CPI inflation rate dipped into negative territory in January, this bout of deflation is likely to be brief and it won't prevent the Fed from beginning to raise its policy rate from near... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should we be worried about the negative saving rate? We are not too worried about evidence suggesting that Japanese households now have a negative saving rate. Thanks to a shrinking fiscal deficit and high corporate saving, Japan remains a net lender to... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Exports from euro-zone and Japan a bit stronger The volume of world trade rebounded in December, but for the fourth quarter as a whole it rose only in line with global GDP. More recent data indicate that the gradual recovery in exports from the... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Election worries hit Nigeria Sentiment towards Nigeria has soured following news that presidential elections scheduled for earlier this month will be postponed until 28th March due to security concerns. We expect that the naira... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Improvement in balance of payments position here to stay Eighteen months ago the rupee plunged to a record low against the US dollar as concerns over India’s external vulnerabilities made it one of the hardest-hit economies during the “taper tantrum”. Since... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in Japanese FDI into China? The slowdown in Japanese FDI into China is not reflective of a general pullback in overseas investment by Japanese firms but is instead linked, we think, to political tensions between the two... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Economy is not out of the woods yet India’s revised GDP data paint a far healthier picture of the economy over the past couple of years than had previously appeared the case. GDP growth for FY13/14 was revised up from 4.7% to 6.9%. In... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jan.) Once seasonal factors are accounted for, last month's trade deficit was the smallest in nearly three years. The plunge in energy prices still hasn’t been fully reflected in the cost of imported fuels... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rally in coal prices likely to be short-lived The rally in coal prices this year is unlikely to be the start of a sustained turnaround in fortunes for the beleaguered market. Stronger demand from India may continue to support prices over the next... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
