Global Trade Monitor World trade weaker in January World trade volumes fell in January, following an increase the previous month. Looking ahead, a number of factors suggest that the growth of world trade may pick up a bit in the coming months, but we... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Current Account (Feb.) February’s balance of payments data will do little to ease investor’s concerns about Brazil’s current account deficit. Although the 12-month rolling deficit narrowed a touch in dollar terms, it... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Exports take a turn for the worse Emerging Asia’s exports have taken a turn for the worse in recent months. Leaving out China, the region’s merchandise exports, measured in US dollar terms, contracted at the sharpest annual rate in... 24th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade & Construction (Jan.) January’s euro-zone trade data suggested that the region’s exports are still not benefitting substantially from the weakness of the euro. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook A difficult year ahead A confluence of domestic and external factors will cut Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth in 2015 to its slowest rate this century. Low commodity prices will reduce export earnings and force fiscal... 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) The trade gap widened last month as a plunge in export volumes offset another decline in the cost of oil imports. Net trade should therefore become a drag on GDP growth soon. 18th March 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policymakers strike sanguine note If there is one key message on the economy to take away from the National People’s Congress it is that the government is aware of downside risks to growth but confident that it has the tools and the... 17th March 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand is vulnerable to Australian slowdown The hit to New Zealand’s exports from the economic slowdown in Australia is going to be felt at almost the exact same time as the boost to activity from the domestic construction boom starts to fade... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jan.) Mexican industry made a disappointing start to the year, but with demand from the US likely to strengthen and a weaker peso set to boost the external competitiveness of exporters, we still expect the... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the pound riding for a fall? Sterling remains vulnerable to concerns about a hung parliament, EU exit and the current account deficit. But it is hard to tell when these concerns will bite, if they will at all. And in the meantime... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greece & deflation re-ignite the euro-zone crisis? The combination of Greece’s renewed problems and the onset of deflation is a very toxic one for the euro-zone. At best, it is likely to keep economic growth in the region fairly subdued. At worst, it... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) Following the substantial net trade boost to the economic recovery in Q4, January’s trade figures brought more good news on the economy’s rebalancing. But sterling’s recent strength suggests that the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export downturn deepens The value of EM exports fell at the sharpest rate in more than five years in January. The timing of Chinese New Year was partly to blame, and an improvement is almost guaranteed in February, given the... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) Turkey’s current account deficit narrowed substantially in January on the back of a fall in imports. But this wasn’t just due to lower energy imports – non-energy imports fell too. This adds to the... 11th March 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Current Account (Q4) India’s current account deficit narrowed in Q4 and remains far smaller than in 2013 when the rupee plunged to record lows against the US dollar. With this improvement set to be maintained, there is... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity import data still distorted by holidays China’s commodity import volumes fell in February but this was hardly surprising given the long mid-month holiday. We expect demand to start recovering in March, boosted by low prevailing prices. 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
