Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland: An example for Greece to follow? Iceland’s healthy economic recovery after its financial collapse in 2008 highlights the attractions of currency depreciation, if necessary accompanied by capital controls. Such a path has its economic... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Mar.) The current account surplus jumped to a multi-year high in March, and we think that it will be the highest this year since 2010. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Record current account deficit a cause for concern Canada's growing current account deficit probably hit a record high in the first quarter, as the impact of the recent slump in oil prices hit export revenues. The lower Canadian dollar will help to... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in nominal business sales not a concern The slowdown in the annual growth rate of business sales is not a concern since sales are measured in nominal terms. That growth rate has been affected more by the slump in energy prices rather than... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s exports should recover from weak Q1 Emerging Asia’s export performance took a sharp turn for the worse in the first quarter, with a slump in demand from China creating the largest drag. However, a positive turnaround is likely over the... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports up strongly in April China’s commodity imports, with the exception of oil, remained relatively subdued in April. However, we expect import growth to pick up in tandem with higher government spending on infrastructure. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update UK election eases political uncertainty, but sterling risks remain Financial markets have initially welcomed the clarity and continuity resulting from the Conservative Party’s unexpectedly decisive victory in the UK general election. Political risks have undoubtedly... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Mar.) Although all eyes this morning have been on the general election result, March’s trade figures have also been released and help to explain some of the slowdown in GDP growth in the first quarter. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) March’s German industrial production and trade data offer some signs that the weaker euro is providing a boost to the economy, but seem to confirm that GDP growth slowed in Q1 compared to Q4. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) A weaker-than-expected recovery in export growth suggests that foreign demand has softened going into Q2. Domestic demand also appears subdued, though the contraction in imports is still largely... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s dong devaluation not about export competitiveness Today’s 1% devaluation of the dong by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is unlikely to provide much of a boost to exports, as some have suggested. Looking ahead, we are only expecting minor adjustments... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Few signs of election uncertainty undermining recovery Although GDP posted its smallest quarterly rise since 2012 in the first quarter of this year, we doubt that the economy is on the cusp of a renewed slowdown. The business surveys suggest that Q1’s 0.3... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
