Europe Economics Update Export success masks Portugal’s external weakness Portugal’s exports have been amongst the euro-zone’s fastest growing over the last few years. But the country’s external position remains very fragile, leaving it vulnerable to renewed market... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Renewed focus on Gulf’s fiscal positions The fresh fall in oil prices has turned attention back to fiscal positions in the Gulf, with the UAE’s government the latest to announce measures to rein in spending. The UAE plans to deregulate fuel... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash PMIs (Jul.) Preliminary business surveys suggest that global growth weakened further in July, butwe do not think that the world economy is heading for another major downturn. 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed closing in on lift-off, as economy enjoys Q2 rebound This week's FOMC meeting will be uneventful. With the Fed keen to stress that every meeting is "live" and that decisions are based entirely on the incoming data, we wouldn't expect any heavy hints in... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China set for further widening of renminbi band China may be on the cusp of again widening the renminbi’s trading band with the dollar. The lesson of previous similar moves is that they have next to no impact on the medium-term path of the currency... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jun.) While today’s data showed a rebound in export values in June, we think that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade volume falls again World trade volumes fell sharply in May – the fourth monthly fall during the first five months of the year. This leaves trade growth lagging well behind the growth of GDP. Most of the slowdown has... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy’s recovery: lessons from Iberia Spain’s and Portugal’s recoveries offer some hope for Italy, the periphery’s laggard. But Italy’s exports are still too uncompetitive and its firms too unprofitable to mimic the export and investment... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Greek economy ever return to normal? Even if the planned new Greek bailout is quickly and smoothly implemented, the economy looks set to remain in a deep and prolonged recession. 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports nearing a trough Exports from emerging markets continued to be dragged down in May by the impact of low commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But as these effects start to unwind over the second half of... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack June data mixed, but Q2 GDP growth around 2.8% After a strong May, economic activity was more mixed in June. Nevertheless, it was still solid enough to re-affirm our view that the economy rebounded robustly in the second quarter. Even after the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Oil price shock part II The latest renewed slump in world and domestic crude oil prices is another blow to the outlook for Canada's oil-dependent economy, which has already slipped into a mild recession. With the fallout... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Puzzling weakness in exports likely to persist The puzzling weakness in non-energy exports most likely boils down to a lack of competitiveness, even after taking into account the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Unless the value of the... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia in 2017 In our Q3 Emerging Asia Outlook, which was published on Thursday, we rolled out our forecasts to include 2017. This Weekly looks in more detail at the region’s growth prospects for the year after next... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
