Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Revised) & Current Account (Jul.) While the economy shrank by slightly less last quarter than initially estimated, the first data for Q3 suggest that a rapid recovery in the second half of the year is not on the cards. 8th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Has internal devaluation worked for Ireland? Since the financial crisis, internal devaluation appears to have provided only a modest boost to Ireland’s trade balance. More important to the economic recovery has been the pick-up in domestic... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How large is Saudi Arabia’s fiscal buffer? With oil prices still languishing at multi-year lows, Saudi Arabia’s budget position – which looks set to post a shortfall of close to 20% of GDP this year – has come under increasing scrutiny in... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Advanced economies looking resilient We expect developed economies to weather the fallout from China’s August “devaluation” and the subsequent weakness in world equity markets quite well. Activity in the emerging world has slowed further... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Int. Trade (Jul.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Aug.) The struggles of the export-orientated manufacturing sector, which has been hit by the dollar’s surge and the weakness of global demand, have been getting most of the attention this week, but today's... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The narrowing of the trade deficit in July indicates that the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing. This supports our view that, after suffering a mild recession in the first half of the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Resurgence in exports unlikely to last The UK economy fired on all cylinders in Q2, with investment and net trade both providing considerable support to GDP growth. However, exports look set for a relapse soon. 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation dangers still lingering While the crisis in Greece appears to have receded at least temporarily, the euro-zone still faces serious challenges in the form of weak growth and persistent deflation risks. As the Chart below... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Nuclear restart not a game changer The impact of the gradual resumption of nuclear energy generation on Japan’s trade balance will be negligible. Nor should we expect a major fall in electricity prices. 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q2) The second estimate of Q2 GDP showed that the recovery received considerable support from net trade. The pound’s recent appreciation suggests that this support is unlikely to last. But with households... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) Q2’s GDP release revealed that Switzerland has so far avoided a recession despite the strength of the franc. But it seems very unlikely that positive contributions from nettrade can be sustained and... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Equity sell-off to reverse soon The recent equity market sell-off in Japan, which originated in China, does not reflect a major deterioration in the economic outlook for Japan. In fact, there are signs that Chinese demand for... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Foreigners head for the exits The financial turmoil of the past month in Asia has seen foreign investors scramble for the exit. Net foreign outflows from the region’s equity markets have reached nearly US$10bn so far in August... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 2nd est.) The strong expansion in Spain’s economy in Q2 was powered by domestic demand. But this partly reflected the effects of lower oil prices and looser fiscal policy ahead of the general election. As these... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Trade rebound suggests world economy is down but not out 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro’s rise stall the recovery? Agriculture accounts for 2% of GDP while the livestock sector is probably 1% or less. Accordingly, a 10% reduction in livestock output would reduce GDP by 0.1% for as long as it lasts. This accords... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
