Canada Economics Weekly A Trans-Pacific Partnership deal wouldn’t improve outlook The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, even if it was ratified soon, would be unlikely to improve Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The initial effects of the new trade agreement... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German slowdown will force the ECB’s hand Last week’s news on the euro-zone brought the strongest signs yet that some parts of the currency union are starting to feel the effects of the deterioration in the international environment. In... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade & Construction Output (Aug.) August’s trade and construction figures provided further signs that the UK’s economic recovery lost some pace in Q3, and remained unbalanced. However, we remain confident that the recovery will regain... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy not falling off a cliff! Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update TPP impact on agricultural markets likely to be limited TPP is the largest trade deal to be negotiated for more than 20 years. But given the relatively small share of world imports of key agricultural commodities by the 12 signatories and many existing... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX reserves (Sep.) Today’s data on China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that capital outflows eased last month, allowing the People’s Bank to reduce its currency intervention. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) While the sharp decline in export volumes in August was disappointing, the big gains in earlier months mean that net trade still contributed positively to third-quarter GDP, which we now estimate grew... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The huge widening in the trade deficit in August to $48.3bn, from $41.8 bn in July, demonstrates the extent to which deteriorating global growth and the sharp appreciation in the dollar have impacted... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery’s wheels not falling off, despite Q3 slowdown The latest business surveys made for dismal reading. Indeed, the average level of the economy-wide Markit/CIPS composite PMI over Q3 as a whole points to quarterly growth in GDP of just 0.5%... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of China’s slowdown on Latin America Latin America is one of the most exposed emerging market regions to the slowdown in China’s economy. The actual impact so far has varied between countries. Venezuela, Peru, and Chile have been hardest... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would Brexit mean for the UK economy? We doubt that the UK’s outlook hinges on the Brexit question. Things have changed a lot since 1973, when joining the European Union (EU) was a big deal for the UK. We think that the UK economy will do... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy back in recession Japan’s economy probably shrank for a second straight quarter in Q3. With the economic recovery grinding to a halt, the chances of hitting the Bank’s 2%inflation by next summer are dwindling rapidly... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update TPP is potentially a “big deal” but only over the long term The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement which was announced today may not see the light of day for some years. Assuming, however, that it is eventually implemented, it should have large and... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Trans-Pacific Partnership deal positive for Abenomics Much of the focus in Japan in the run-up to the successful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership talks was on agriculture and vehicles. In practice, the economic significance of the agreement in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Making sense of the official GDP data The official GDP figures are likely to show a small slowdown in China’s growth rate in Q3 – and also to be greeted with a large amount of scepticism. We’d put more weight on the details of the GDP... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
