UK Economics Chart Pack “Good” deflation returns The latest consumer prices figures showed that CPI inflation turned negative again in September. Although the current period of negative inflation should prove to be short lived and shallow, inflation... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg is here to stay Saudi Arabia’s peg to the US dollar is coming under increasing scrutiny but we think fears that the authorities will devalue the riyal are overdone. The Kingdom’s substantial foreign exchange reserves... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Sep.) The trade balance was little changed in September despite a plunge in import prices. The upshot is that net trade remained a drag on GDP growth in Q3. 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How is Norway coping with lower oil prices? The decline in oil prices has weighed on the Norwegian mainland economy and things could get worse before they get better. But ramped-up policy support from the Government and central bank next year... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Aug.) August’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that weakening global demand over the summer took a toll on the region’s exporters, causing the trade surplus to fall from a record high. 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump highlights risks to government target The narrowing in India’s trade deficit in September masks that fact that exports continue to contract sharply. Wide-ranging reform is needed to boost export prospects but, with progress still slow... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports show signs of bottoming out EM exports continued to fall sharply in August, but the early data for September provide some hope that the worst may now be over. The year-on-year pace of contraction in export values is likely to... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Falling import prices create another headwind for the BoJ While the Bank of Japan remains upbeat about the prospects of hitting its 2% inflation target, the fact that non-energy import prices have just recorded the first fall since the launch of QQE... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Aug.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for August were, on the face of it, encouraging as the current account deficit fell to its lowest monthly level since 2009. But it’s worth noting that the decline in... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Global uncertainty adds to downside risks The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Sep.) Stronger-than-expected export data hint at warming foreign demand. Meanwhile, we aren’t as concerned about domestic demand as some given that the contraction in imports values continues to mostly... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outcome of TPP deal irrelevant for US outlook The big news last week was the announcement of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the US and 11 other countries, which aims to lower trade barriers and set common commercial... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
