China Economics Update Fading outflows ease pressure on renminbi Capital outflows from China appear to have eased while the trade surplus is at an all-time high. As a result, downward pressure on the renminbi has dissipated. We suspect, contrary to the analyst... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment not unusually low The current level of business investment is not unusually low, with firms opting to use funds to pay dividends or buy back equity instead. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean the outlook for business... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will the inclusion of the RMB in the SDR be a game-changer? Although the addition of China’s currency to the SDR basket may provide a short-term boost for the renminbi, its appeal as a reserve asset will be constrained by lack of convertibility and liquidity... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth picking up again at the start of Q4 Concerns that a hard landing in China may tip the world into a fresh recession look increasingly wide of the mark. The latest business surveys and credit data suggest that China itself may be... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economic recovery picks up pace at the start of Q4 The latest business surveys support our view that the slowdown in the economy in Q3 was just temporary. Gains in both the Markit/CIPS manufacturing and service sector PMIs in October left the economy... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat'l Trade (Sep.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Oct.) The big narrowing in the trade deficit in September is encouraging, but that improvement won't last. The dollar’s surge over the next 12 months means that the deficit is likely to widen again and net... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) Exports lost momentum during the third quarter, with volumes stagnating in September after falling in August, suggesting that the economy is unlikely to sustain the estimated 2.5% annualised GDP... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Sep.) September's retail sales and international trade figures support the RBA's view that economic conditions have recently "firmed". They suggest that GDP growth may have rebounded from the dismal 0.2% q... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Less to economic relations with Africa than meets the eye The ongoing India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi has been accompanied by a great deal of confused commentary on the nature and extent of economic relations between India and Africa. Contrary to what... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam and Bangladesh exports bucking the trend Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Efforts to restrict gold imports likely to have limited success India’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports, due to be rolled out next month, are likely to have mixed results. The Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme’s easy accessibility and more transparent... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Oct. & Q4) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for October and Q4 highlighted the woes of the manufacturing sector. And the near-term prospects remain dim. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Advanced economy exports outshine EM exports The volume of world trade fell again in August, continuing its weak run this year. Exports from emerging economies have been particularly sluggish, although they have held up much better in volume... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Services strength underpinning rebalancing For all the (justified) doubts over the accuracy of the headline growth rates, the third quarter GDP data provide evidence of encouraging shifts in the economy. According to the official data... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) While the rebound in today’s flash manufacturing PMI for October suggests that the economy may have turned a corner in Q4, the Bank of Japan tends to pay little attention to the PMI surveys. 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
