Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turning the corner The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Rate debate heats up in Indonesia The war of words between Bank Indonesia (BI) and the government is heating up after the country’s vice president, Jusuf Kalla, earlier this week renewed its call for the central bank to cut interest... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Weak EMs drag down global trade volumes World trade growth remains frail largely as a result of the continued lacklustre performance of emerging economies. However, we don’t think this is an early sign of a widespread downturn in the global... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Brazil a weak link amid EM stabilisation Emerging market (EM) growth appears to have slowed a touch in September on the back of the deepening recession in Brazil. Even so, there are no signs of the collapse in broader EM growth that some... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Labour market conditions brighten in October The 271,000 surge in non-farm payrolls last month puts to rest fears that the earlier slowdown could be the start of a worrying downturn. The decline in the unemployment to 5.0% in October leaves it... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat from emerging economies? Advanced economies have proved resilient this year in the face of a slowdown in emerging markets (EMs). As it happens, we think EM growth is likely to recover, gradually, in the coming months. But... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Paris tragedy will have limited economic effects It goes without saying that the loss of life and the social impact of the Paris attacks dwarf any consideration of their economic consequences. But we doubt that the near-term economic impact will be... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Oct.) While export volumes probably edged up in October, external demand is set to remain sluggish for now. 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) The acceleration in Chile’s GDP growth in the third quarter is an encouraging sign that, after a brief slowdown in the previous quarter, the economic recovery is back on track. GDP growth is still... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check India’s trade deficit narrowed in October and, looking ahead, there are reasons to think that the import bill will remain in check. Given this, the overall current account position looks unlikely to... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drag on EM exports from commodity collapse should ease soon EM exports remained weak in September as the drag from lower commodity prices continued to take its toll, even in countries which are not major commodity exporters. However, as this drag fades and... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Sep.) Turkey’s monthly current account balance rose a little further into surplus in September, but this was mainly due to lower energy imports and an improvement in the gold trade balance. The underlying... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is sluggish trade growth a warning sign for the global economy? The OECD’s warning yesterday that weak trade growth may herald an economic downturn is wide of the mark. Trade in goods has continued to grow in line with industrial output and the link between trade... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan’s exports set for recovery Exports from Taiwan have been contracting since the start of the year, but should return to growth soon. An improving export picture could be enough to make the difference between rates staying on... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
