Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Dec.) December’s small fall in the headline German Ifo index left it still at a high level. But the sharper decline in the current conditions component supported evidence from recent hard data that growth... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Nov.) While net trade probably provided another boost to GDP growth this quarter, a slowdown in export volumes lies ahead. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Oct.) & Final CPI (Nov.) October’s euro-zone goods trade data revealed a further slowdown in export growth, adding to the evidence that the boost from the weaker euro is fading. We suspect that the trade surplus will narrow... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit looks sustainable despite export weakness India’s trade deficit remained stable in November as the continued slump in exports was offset by another collapse in imports. With this trend set to continue, the overall current account position... 16th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa battered by self-induced crisis A recent series of unexpected cabinet reshuffles – in which South Africa had three finance ministers in four days – has dented the political and economic credibility of President Jacob Zuma. The rand... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak German exports dent hopes for 2016 Contrary to hopes that a weaker euro and accommodative monetary policy would be particularly beneficial to Germany’s supposedly super-competitive export sector, the latest data have brought signs that... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Grim outlook for major economies, optimism elsewhere Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa) will remain depressed in 2016 but we expect better performances from the region’s smaller markets. Nigeria’s oil-focused... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Contraction in EM exports to ease in 2016 EM export revenues are on track to fall by a trillion dollars (equivalent to about 3.5% of EM GDP) this year compared to 2014. Although exports are set to remain weak in 2016, we expect the pace of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Oct.) October’s dismal trade figures provided further signs that the economic recovery has remained worryingly unbalanced in the fourth quarter. And the prospects for exports further ahead remain pretty dim... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the slowdown in world trade? There is no doubt that world trade growth has slowed sharply this year. However, we are wary of reading too much into the latest slump in trade. Exports from and imports to advanced economies have... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports lifted by policy support The value of China’s imports fell once more in November, although the decline was not as large as anticipated. More significantly, commodity import volumes rose strongly, which suggests that low... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q3) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 revealed that the slowdown in growth was driven by weaker net exports. As the boost to consumer spending growth from lower oil prices fades, we think that... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
