Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region... 20th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel’s rating downgrade, Turkey’s external position The decision by Moody's to deliver Israel's first credit rating downgrade in its history late last week is a warning sign to policymakers that the strength of the public finances should not be taken... 16th February 2024 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices... 15th February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa: cocoa prices to offset hit from poor harvest The effects of El Niño will cause cocoa harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, which account for more than half of global output, to fall by around 20% this year. But the related surge in cocoa prices... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain dollar bond issuance, Egypt softening the blow Bahrain became the latest EM dollar bond issuer this week, and the $2bn raised will help it to meet large upcoming debt repayments. But officials still need to tighten fiscal policy over the coming... 8th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month, easing from 33.6% y/y in December to 29.9% y/y in January. We think inflation will continue to slow this year, but a looming... 8th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers should be feeling a little brighter in 2024 The upcoming GDP data are likely to confirm that Japanese consumers had a dismal 2023, with spending falling for most of the year. Healthy increases in nominal wages and lower inflation should put... 8th February 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen... 7th February 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus A helping hand from the diaspora Remittances are often an underappreciated source of foreign currency for India. While growth in remittances will slow in the next few years, they should remain an important source of external funding... 7th February 2024 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt hikes interest rates as new IMF deal edges closer Events in Egypt yesterday, including a large interest rate hike and comments that a disbursement of more IMF funding is close, suggest that a shift towards more orthodox policy is nearing. If a new... 2nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the... 1st February 2024 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Trade to be constrained more by demand than supply World goods trade looks to have had one of its weakest years in over 40 years in 2023. While shipping diversions may weigh on trade in the very near term, we think that they are unlikely to dent trade... 1st February 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
