Nordic & Swiss Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Nov.) The euro-zone goods trade surplus rose in November, suggesting that exports might have added to GDP growth in Q4. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little contribution to growth this... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the impact of falling oil prices As India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, the continued slide in global oil prices should ensure that the improvement in the current account position is sustained. Domestically, the... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Warning signs from Colombia’s current account The widening of Colombia’s current account deficit in recent months is a major cause for concern and a key factor behind our below-consensus view that growth will slow further in 2016. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China’s commodity imports end 2015 on a strong note China’s imports of major commodities in volume terms rose in December. Of course, low prices probably encouraged some buying, but it also seems likely that policy support, including higher... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint as consumer recovery slows While the euro-zone economy ended last year with some momentum, expectations of a further acceleration in growth in 2016 will be disappointed. The boost to consumer spending from the decline in oil... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Another look at China’s trade data The latest trade data are a challenge to those who believe that China’s export sector needs renminbi depreciation to compete or that China’s economy is continuing to slow. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation and tourism troubles spell slowdown in 2016 The latest Egyptian economic data, on the face of it, show that the economy held up well in 2015, but the underlying picture is actually pretty weak. With the tourism sector in the midst of a fresh... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Dec.) China’s trade data for December support our view that, despite the turmoil in Chinese financial markets, there has not been a major deterioration in its economy in recent months. Meanwhile, another... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Current Account (Nov.) The fall in the current account surplus in November should be followed by a rebound around the turn of the year as the latest fall in crude oil prices has yet to fully feed through to petroleum... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will lower oil prices ever become a net positive? The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Nov.) Turkey’s balance of payments data for November showed that exports remained weak. But, on a more positive note, the current account deficit continued to narrow and the figures also indicated that the... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How worried should we be about the renminbi? In our view, China is likely to keep its currency broadly stable in trade-weighted terms in the coming months. However, if there were a large, across-the-board devaluation of the renminbi the fallout... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Nov.) November’s improved trade figures are unlikely to be sufficient for the external sector to support the economy in Q4. And further ahead, the economic recovery looks set to remain reliant on domestic... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
