Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) December’s international trade and building approvals data cast doubt on the RBA’s view that there are “reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy”. This is especially the case when... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Why are Japanese firms struggling in China? The fact that Japanese firms have fared much worse in China than their competitors since the yen started weakening in 2012 suggests that their competitiveness has waned. However, firms have at least... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How exposed is Germany to a hard landing in China? Even a very sharp slowdown in China would not be enough on its own to push Germany into recession. But if, contrary to our forecasts, a slowdown in China prompted a more generalised slowdown in global... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Baltic Dry Index a useful economic indicator? Another day, another record low for the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). However, while this measure of sea freight costs may be a helpful guide to the balance of supply and demand for certain commodities and... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Weak inflation means rates will remain low for longer Inflation across Emerging Asia remains very low, with consumer prices rising by less than 2% y/y in seven of the 14 countries we track. Two of those, Thailand and Singapore, are in deflation, while... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation to remain below 2% for longer The external deflationary pressure from the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices is persisting for longer than we expected. The lower profile for energy prices now means that headline inflation... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Dec.) The trade balance recorded another surplus in December as lower oil prices reduced import values, and a further improvement in coming months lies ahead. 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rate rise this year still quite possible At the end of another tumultuous week in global financial markets, one of the most notable developments in the UK has been the further drop in interest rate expectations. But even after the shaky... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak, but not collapsing The latest available data show that world trade growth slowed a bit further towards the end of 2015, but they do not point to a sharp downturn. What’s more, preliminary business surveys for January... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Some respite for Korea’s export sector in 2016 A cyclical recovery in China’s economy and free trade agreements that came into force in late 2015 should provide a boost to Korean exports this year. But with Chinese companies making more of the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Market turmoil not justified by economic reality Despite the prevailing gloom about the world economy, we think global growth will pick up from around 2½% last year to 3% in both 2016 and 2017, using our own estimates for China. Growth should be... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update One year on from the Swiss franc shock Swiss exports have performed better than we had feared in the year since the SNB abandoned its currency ceiling. But the franc’s strength has probably yet to take its full toll on exports and the... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Export slump looks set to continue India’s trade deficit remained in check in December but this positive headline story masks the fact that exports continue to contract sharply. With progress on the reforms needed to support a vibrant... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
