Japan Data Response External trade (Jan.) The trade surplus climbed to a fresh high in January, and should continue to improve for now as cheaper energy prices have yet to be fully reflected in the import bill. 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Something’s gotta give Nigeria’s currency has come under increasing pressure since the start of the year, and in this Watch we explain why the government’s response is unsustainable and why we think a devaluation of the... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit to remain in check despite weak export prospects India’s trade deficit narrowed at the start of 2016 as the continued slump in exports was more than offset by another collapse in imports. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slow start to the year for China’s commodity imports China’s overall commodity import volumes increased in January, but dipped for some key commodities. However, the seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday was probably behind some... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would Brexit affect the rest of the EU? We have argued that both the potential costs and benefits to the UK of leaving the EU would be small over the medium term. But this is not a zero-sum game and while we doubt that Brexit would have any... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Dec.) Despite the decline in the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in December, net exports probably increased in Q4 as a whole, raising GDP. Nevertheless, we suspect that net trade will make little... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jan.) Today’s trade figures make for gloomy reading. But things may not be as bad as they look. Commodity import volumes remained resilient and we suspect that at least some of the weakness in the data... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Finland’s economic prospects look grim Data released on Friday showed that Finland’s economy returned to recession in the second half of last year. We suspect that this will be short lived, but the risks to our already below-consensus GDP... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Have the gold schemes been a success? The government’s two new schemes aimed at reducing gold imports have had mixed results in their early stages. The Gold Monetisation Scheme has attracted little interest, while the Sovereign Gold Bond... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Dec.) Turkey’s current account deficit widened in December from November, but that was largely due to seasonal factors and the underlying trend is still one of an improving external position. The upshot is... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Dec.) December’s trade figures provide further evidence that the UK’s economic recovery remained reliant on the domestic services sector in Q4 2015. While we think fears of a sharp global slowdown are... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Dec.) December’s shockingly weak industrial production figures suggest the German economy barely grew in Q4 and pile further pressure on the ECB to match its dovish words with decisive action at its March... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current account surplus will keep Danish krone strong Denmark’s large current account surplus should narrow in the coming years as the economic recovery there takes hold, but it will not disappear entirely. This will sustain the upward pressure on the... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Bangladesh be getting more attention? Bangladesh is one of the best-placed countries in Asia to take advantage of rising costs in China, and we expect it to grow by around 6% a year on average over the next decade. Given its size and... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy more resilient than the markets While the latest data have raised fresh questions about the strength of the US economy, we think activity will recover because income growth remains strong while the drags from dollar appreciation and... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
