Canada Economics Weekly Deficit paranoia is mind-bogglingly stupid The hysterical response to the news that the Federal budget deficit might increase to as much as $30bn next year left us shaking our heads in dismay. Canadian economists are still stuck in the Paul... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) Despite the modest rise in the monthly trade deficit to $0.7bn in January, from $0.6bn, the big 3.6% m/m surge in export volumes is good news. The balance of risks to our forecast that first-quarter... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Exporters to benefit from renewed yen-weakness We expect GDP growth among Japan’s major trading partners to remain weak this year by past standards, so Japan’s export volumes will remain under pressure. However, if our currency forecasts prove... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Jan.) The unexpectedly large narrowing in the international trade deficit in January suggests that the resurgence in the Australian economy in the second half of last year may have continued at the start of... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines presidential election: runners and riders Political campaigning in the Philippines ahead of presidential elections due on 9 th May is now well underway. Grace Poe, an independent candidate and adopted daughter of Fernando Poe, a defeated... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Will 2016 be a better year for world trade? With the exception of 2009, the value of world trade fell more sharply in dollar terms last year than in any other year during the past two decades. However, this was largely due to the slump in... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Balance of payments problems escalating The strains in Nigeria's balance of payments are growing, threatening to push Sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy into a full-blown crisis. The Nigerian economy has been battered by the falling price... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central & South Eastern Europe remains an EM bright spot The latest data from Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) serve as a timely reminder that, despite widespread pessimism, some parts of the emerging world are faring well. Flash Q4 GDP estimates... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low in February and suggests that business sentiment has suffered from the sharp falls in the equity market and the stronger yen. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth holding up well despite export slowdown The recent weakness of Asian exports has stoked fears about the region’s growth prospects. However, regional GDP growth remained stable in the fourth quarter of 2015. Strong domestic demand is likely... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Worst should be over for EM exports The value of EM exports dropped by more than a trillion dollars last year but the pace of contraction eased in Q4. We expect further improvements in 2016 as global demand strengthens. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy slowed further in Q4, with growth dropping to 4.5% y/y from 4.7% the quarter before. Against a backdrop of low commodity prices and high household debt, the slowdown looks set to... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
