Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) & Final CPI (Feb.) January’s euro-zone goods trade data showed that export growth slowed again at the start of 2016, suggesting that the previous small boost from the weaker euro has faded. We expect the region’s trade... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Feb.) The trade surplus climbed to a fresh high in February, but should worsen again before long as the yen weakens and crude oil prices continue to rise. 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB on hold, but battle against deflation is not won The lack of upward pressure on the franc following the last ECB meeting has allowed the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to leave policy on hold for now. But deflation dangers are particularly severe in... 17th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What’s gone wrong in Sri Lanka? Sri Lanka’s request for an IMF loan should ease fears about a potential balance of payments crisis, but the mistakes that put the country in this position will need to be addressed. Most importantly... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lower import bill to keep trade deficit in check India’s monthly trade deficit narrowed in February to its smallest since September 2013. With a number of factors likely to keep commodity imports in check, the overall current account position is... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Feeling the squeeze 2016 is shaping up to be a better year for investors in Latin America than 2015. With global commodity prices now at a bottom and set to edge up this year, we expect most equity markets in the region... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade fears overdone The latest trade figures have reignited fears about the health of emerging markets. But while EM trade growth has slowed in recent years, we see little reason for alarm. 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Jan.) With recent survey evidence suggesting the economic recovery has lost some pace at the start of the year, today’s trade figures suggest that growth was worryingly unbalanced too. 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The UK’s trade deficit is all the euro-zone’s fault For all the hopes of a rebalancing towards exports, the UK’s trade deficit with the rest of the world has barely narrowed since the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that a chronic lack of... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French Industrial Production & German Trade (Jan.) January’s rise in French industrial production supports the message from German data that the sector had a good start to the year. But German exports fell in January, suggesting that softer global... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Current Account (Jan.) Turkey’s balance of payments figures for January showed that the current account deficit continued to narrow, although the pace of improvement slowed. The decline in the external shortfall should... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP Breakdown (Q4) The second estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 showed that the consumer recovery, which boosted growth last year, is losing steam. With recent evidence that growth is slowing and inflation expectations... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remained robust in February China’s commodity import volumes dipped in February from a month earlier, in large part due to seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday. But the bigger picture is that imports of... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Feb.) The contraction in China’s exports deepened last month but this weakness should soon reverse as seasonal distortions fade. Meanwhile, relatively strong commodity import volumes ought to help assuage... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
