Global Economics Update How big a threat does rising populism pose to globalisation? Growing support for populist politicians and political parties in a number of countries has fuelled fears that the global economy is set for an era of greater protectionism. But while world trade is... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Feb.) South Africa’s surprisingly narrow February trade deficit is a rare piece of positive news about the country’s economy. Elsewhere, inflation eased in Kenya and Zambia. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How worrying is the record current account deficit? Today’s data showing that the UK’s current account deficit hit a record high will reinforce fears that the EU referendum could trigger a balance of payments crisis. If funding inflows dried up, the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) The Quarterly National Accounts showed the recovery regained a little pace at the end of 2015 but this partly contributed to growing imbalances in the economy. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Still struggling Financial markets across Latin America have fared well over the past month but the incoming economic data suggest that the region is still struggling. Most of the attention has, of course, focussed on... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria reverses course? The biggest policy change over the past month came from Nigeria, where the Central Bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate from 11.00% to 12.00%. This move partially reversed the Bank’s rate cut... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Where next for Myanmar? Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Recovery in commodity prices to boost world trade values The volume of world trade contracted slightly at the start of the year and it is likely to remain sluggish in the coming months. However, the recovery in commodity prices, which we expect to continue... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook The worst is yet to come Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa fell to a 16 year-low last year, and we believe that growth will weaken even further 2016. Three key factors will drive this decline. First, a combination of drought... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Making a good start to the year Data released over the past month have provided further evidence that regional growth strengthened at the start to the year. Admittedly, the region’s largest economy, Russia, remains in recession. But... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering a prolonged period of weak growth The storm created by low oil prices will finally make its presence felt in the Gulf this year and we expect this to be the start of an extended period of slow growth. A wave of devaluations is highly... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What would a Brexit mean for Scotland? This Thursday marks the date that the Scottish government had pencilled in for “independence day” if Scotland had voted to leave the UK in 2014’s independence referendum. So it seems a particularly... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External position continues to strengthen The narrowing in India's current account deficit in Q4 2015, along with the pick-up in foreign direct investment inflows, supports our view that the country's external position will remain far less a... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone’s trade surplus set to shrink We do not think that the recent strengthening of the euro is the result of a change of tactics from the ECB, away from trying to manage the exchange rate towards attempting to boost domestic demand... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Election and Census will further distort labour market data There is not enough evidence to conclude that the recent sharp slowdown in employment growth in Australia is due to fears over the health of the global economy rather than statistical noise. This year... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
